The BLUF - April 29th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Canada: Liberal Party Wins Election For Prime Minister

• Analysis: Eastern Europe - The Hub of the European Illegal Arms Market

• Putin Declares 72 Hour Ceasefire To Commemorate WWII Victory

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Canada: Liberal Party Wins Election For Prime Minister

_{By: Atlas}

Canadians cast their ballots on Monday in what has become one of the most dramatic federal elections in recent memory, with former central banker Mark Carney's Liberals seeking a fourth consecutive mandate against Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives in a race that has tightened considerably in its final days.

A Remarkable Reversal of Fortune

The election represents an extraordinary turnaround from just a few months ago. In December, the Conservatives held a commanding 34-point lead over Justin Trudeau's deeply unpopular Liberal government. But a series of political earthquakes—Trudeau's January resignation, Carney's ascension to Liberal leadership, and President Donald Trump's aggressive trade actions against Canada—have completely transformed the landscape.

"Between tariffs and threats of annexation, Trump became the single most important issue in the country overnight," said Angus Reid, founder of the Angus Reid Institute, whose polling shows the Liberals with a narrow lead.

The latest surveys from major pollsters suggest a photo finish, with the Liberals' advantage shrinking to just 2-4 percentage points. Abacus Data's final likely-voter model shows the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 39%, reflecting a tightening race that once saw Carney enjoying a 5-point cushion.

The Trump Factor

What began as a campaign focused on domestic concerns has evolved into a debate about which leader is best equipped to defend Canadian interests against Trump's America. The U.S. president has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the North American free trade agreement, along with additional tariffs on energy, potash, steel, aluminum, and auto parts. Canada has retaliated with its own countermeasures.

Trump injected himself directly into the campaign on election day, writing on Truth Social: "Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World... WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st State of the United States of America."

Carney has made standing up to Trump the cornerstone of his campaign, calling the current situation "the greatest crisis of our lifetime" and promising swift diplomatic engagement if elected. The 60-year-old former Goldman Sachs executive and central banker has emphasized his international economic experience as crucial for navigating the trade dispute.

The Battle for Change

Poilievre, meanwhile, has consistently positioned himself as the agent of change after nearly a decade of Liberal governance. The 45-year-old Conservative leader has focused on affordability issues, promising income tax cuts, housing reforms, and reduced regulations to boost economic growth.

"We will continue, despite calls to the contrary, to talk about those things even if I am the only leader in the country that offers any change," Poilievre told supporters at a recent rally.

While acknowledging the importance of the U.S. relationship, Poilievre has accused Carney of using Trump as a distraction from the Liberals' record on housing costs, inflation, and what he characterizes as failed economic policies.

A Contest of Regions

What makes this election particularly complex is Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, where the distribution of votes matters as much as their total number.

The Liberals enjoy significant leads in Quebec (23% of parliamentary seats) and a narrower advantage in Ontario (36% of seats), while the Conservatives dominate in Alberta and Saskatchewan. British Columbia appears to be a toss-up.

"The race will be won or lost in Ontario," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, pointing specifically to Toronto and the surrounding "905" region with its 55 ridings and 4.5 million eligible voters. "If they vote overwhelmingly for the Liberals again, Carney will win a fourth consecutive term for his party."

Historic Turnout Possible

A record 7.3 million Canadians have already voted in advance polls conducted over the Easter weekend, exceeding the previous high of 5.8 million early ballots in the 2021 federal election. If election day turnout follows this pattern, participation could far surpass recent elections.

The unprecedented early voting occurred despite both major parties releasing their fully costed platforms relatively late in the campaign. The Liberals' plan includes $129 billion in new spending over four years, adding nearly $225 billion to the federal debt. The Conservatives have pledged to reduce the projected deficit by 70% over four years, though their plan would still add $100 billion to the national debt.

Final Hours of Campaigning

The campaign's final days were overshadowed by tragedy when a vehicle struck multiple people at a Filipino street festival in Vancouver on Saturday, killing 11 people and injuring dozens. Party leaders scaled back their campaign activities to address the incident.

Both Carney and Poilievre attempted to make their closing arguments to voters in key battleground regions. Carney has promised that if re-elected, he would meet with Trump "within days" to begin negotiations on a new trade and security agreement between the United States and Canada.

With voting stations closing at different times across Canada's six time zones, the first results from Atlantic Canada are expected around 7 p.m. Eastern Time, with most results coming in after 9:30 p.m. when polls close in the populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec.

"This really has been an extraordinary election," Reid noted. "The question is whether Canadians' desire for change after a decade of Liberal governance will outweigh their concerns about how Poilievre would handle Trump and the tariff dispute."

Whether Carney extends the Liberals' hold on power or Poilievre leads the Conservatives back to government, the next prime minister will face immediate challenges managing both domestic economic pressures and an increasingly complex relationship with Canada's largest trading partner.

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