The BLUF - August 12th

Good morning everyone,

This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• US & China Extend Pause On Tariffs For Another 90 Days

• Columbian Presidential Hopeful Dead After 2 Month Gunshot Struggle

• The Philippines Brushes With China, Verbally & Almost Physically

US & China Extend Pause On Tariffs For Another 90 Days

_{By: Atlas}

The United States and China agreed to extend their tariff pause for another 90 days, preventing steep duty increases that were set to take effect just after the existing truce expired. The White House said the president signed an executive order to keep the current framework in place, and Beijing announced a parallel move through state media. The extension preserves the terms first reached in May, when the two sides pulled back from triple-digit tariffs and committed to keep talking. It also buys time for negotiators to work through specific trade frictions that remain unresolved.

What the extension does

Under the extended pause, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports remain at 30%, while China keeps duties on U.S. goods at 10%. Without an extension, those rates would have snapped back toward far higher levels—up to 145% on many categories entering the United States and up to 125% on U.S. goods shipped to China. Keeping the reduced rates in place stabilizes the trading environment heading into the fall. For American retailers, the timing matters: importers traditionally build holiday inventories in late summer and early autumn, and a sudden tariff spike would have complicated purchasing plans and pricing.

The administration framed the move as a way to sustain momentum in discussions on “reciprocity” and broader economic and national security concerns. China’s announcement echoed that rationale, tying the pause to recent leader-level communications and to the goal of steadying global markets. Beyond tariffs, the current arrangement reflects limited de-escalation in adjacent areas—U.S. export restrictions on some technologies were eased in June, and China has allowed a partial recovery in shipments of rare-earth magnets used across U.S. manufacturing.

Negotiations and possible timeline

Talks have run on a regular cadence since the spring. After the May understanding that lowered tariff levels, working groups met again in Stockholm in late July. Officials have suggested the 90-day window gives both sides space to translate broad commitments into more specific steps and to test whether a larger package is feasible. If progress continues, a leader-level meeting later in the year has been floated as a possibility, though both capitals have avoided firm pledges.

The White House has also tied some trade questions to other policy aims. Officials have pressed Beijing to curtail purchases of Russian oil, and the president previously warned of secondary tariffs if those flows continue at scale. Separately, the administration has kept up pressure on technology exports: U.S. chipmakers seeking licenses to sell certain AI accelerators in China have agreed to revenue-based fees to the U.S. government as a condition of access, a mechanism that effectively monetizes some export permissions without lifting broader controls. Those moves are “adjacent” to the truce but factor into the overall bargaining environment.

Implications for business and markets

Extending the pause removes a near-term risk that had unsettled importers and commodity markets. Companies with exposure to the U.S.–China corridor gain a clearer runway to place orders, plan logistics, and set prices through early November. Business groups welcomed the decision, pointing to the need for predictability while negotiations continue. Agricultural exporters are watching closely as well. The president publicly urged China to markedly increase soybean purchases as part of any broader trade package, a signal that farm sales could again feature as a headline metric of progress.

For manufacturers, two issues stand out. First, the rare-earth supply chain has shown signs of normalization since June after months of tightness linked to Chinese curbs; a sustained pause helps keep that recovery on track. Second, sector-specific levies outside the headline rates—such as duties on steel and certain medical goods—remain in effect, which means the “average” tariff burden can run higher than the simple 30%/10% split suggests for particular categories. Firms continue to model costs under both the current rates and the risk case of a reversion to far higher levels if talks stall.

Financial markets have treated the extension as a de-risking event, not a resolution. Earlier surges in tariffs this year coincided with volatility in equities and commodities; the May pullback and now the August extension have helped stabilize expectations. Still, analysts caution that core disputes—intellectual property enforcement, industrial subsidies, data and platform rules, and the use of tariffs as leverage in non-trade areas—remain unsettled. The truce reduces headline tension but does not rewrite the underlying policy aims on either side.

Outstanding issues to watch

Several questions will shape the next 90 days:

• Scope of a deal. Officials have hinted at incremental steps (for example, commitments on rare-earth flows, targeted adjustments to export controls, and calibrated increases in U.S. agricultural sales to China). Whether those add up to a framework that both sides can endorse is unclear. A narrow, confidence-building package is more likely than a sweeping accord that resolves structural concerns.

• Linkage to non-trade matters. The administration has tied elements of trade policy to fentanyl-related enforcement and to energy purchases from sanctioned countries. Beijing has resisted linkages that step outside the trade lane. How tightly these issues remain coupled will affect the negotiability of the overall package.

• Technology and chips. U.S. rules on advanced semiconductors, and the revenue-share condition on certain chip sales to China, will continue to test corporate compliance and Chinese regulatory response. Any abrupt change—tightening by Washington or retaliatory measures by Beijing—would complicate the truce’s stability.

• Tariff architecture. The current U.S. average tariff level remains historically elevated even with the pause in place. Trade lawyers expect the administration to keep “reciprocal” and sector-specific tools at the ready. Conversely, China’s 10% line rate remains a lever Beijing can adjust quickly if talks sour.

• Logistics and seasonality. With peak import season underway, the truce’s practical value will be measured in stable freight bookings, predictable landed costs, and minimal disruption at ports. Any hint that the extension could lapse in November without a successor framework would likely reintroduce caution into ordering patterns by late September.

The 90-day pause is a tactical decision that preserves a narrower, more manageable negotiating space while sidestepping an immediate tariff shock. It does not settle long-running disagreements over market access, subsidy regimes, and technology controls. Businesses get time to plan and a bit more certainty through early November; policymakers get time to test whether modest steps can hold. What happens next depends on whether working-level progress turns into specific, verifiable actions that both governments are willing to document—and whether either side concludes that leverage improves by waiting rather than dealing.

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