Good morning everyone,

This is Bianca Bridger, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Fresh Leadership Emerges in Syria After The Fall of Assad

• South Korean President Impeached Along With Possible Arrest

• France Begins Military Withdrawal From Chad

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New Governance in Syria

_{By Pete Eskander, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

The fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s Syria means that HTS (Hayat Al-Tahrir) will have to decide what direction the country will take as it transitions from one form of government – albeit far from being democracy-adjacent – into another proposed government of moderation and open negotiations. Just as recently as December 17th negotiations and formal channels have opened between Russia and HTS to retain some of its airbases in the region. Pressures from international actors remain high on the removal of Russian presence in the region as the EU looks to bring the closure of airfields and infrastructure, with Kaja Kallas (EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy) advocating for such removal given “the country’s new leadership”.

Plans for the Future of Syria

HTS also plans to dismantle all factions of opposition into a singular national force for the purposes of unification under the new Syrian Transitional Government. Many different factions such as Fateh al Mubin fall under the loosely organized HTS – umbrella but remain diverse in their ideological inclinations and fealty to other organizations. Under the SNA (Syrian National Army) fall differing groups such as the Hamza Division, Suleiman Shah Brigade, and the Jaish al Ahrar beginning with talks on Dec 16 and discussions continuing.

The interim government will be given until March 2025 and then expire thereafter, Syrian Interim Prime Minister Mohammad al Bashir has not indicated what might occur thereafter expiration. Currently, HTS has opted for a more moderate view than its previous Salafist portrayals and leanings. This is with regard to establishing support with foreign global leaders and increasing engagement across varying sectors to achieve transnational cooperation. The HTS will not attempt to intrude on personal freedoms but unspecified customs will be regarded. Dignitaries from around the world have made their way to bring up whether discussions can be had with HTS but a focus by the group has been that these governments drop the terrorist designation in order to rebuild Syria.

Turkey and adjoining factions

Turkish influence ties in with HTS’ objectives in the region, as the new interim government calls for the dissolution of the SDF (Syrian Defense Forces) that encompasses all of Syria. The SDF leadership has stated its desire for federal regions of Syria which clashes with the interim government's plans for a unified Syrian state. This aligns with Turkey’s goals of disarming the SDF and Kurdish-backed allies and strengthening their position in the country from the northeast, following formal arrangements being made on December 12 between HTS leadership and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin. These talks involve the formalization of intelligence sharing, and military cooperation along with the impression of legitimacy on the world stage that HTS is currently mustering. There is also a slow buildup into what HTS hopes can be a flourishing multilateral cooperation with Turkey, aligned only with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s goal of removing Kurdish minorities and expansion of territories along the northeast region in an ever-shifting power struggle between Turkey’s proxies and U.S.-backed militias in Syria.

Recent Appointments and Designations

On Dec 20th, 2024 the U.S. State Department has said it will be dropping the 10 million USD bounty on Abu Mohammad al-Julani after U.S. officials met with him in Damascus. He was listed in May 2013 as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” with a total reward of $10 million reward and any information leading to his capture.

In another approach towards unification, HTS’s Jolani has claimed the dissolution of all other militant factions and consolidated their leadership under the Syrian Defense Ministry. The newly appointed defense minister for the interim government was named as Murhaf Abu Qasra who helped topple Assad’s regime. Many of these leaders who merged factions were offered positions at the battalion level of leadership within the new ministry.

Impeachment & Possible Arrest of South Korean President

_{By Ian Hines, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

South Korea's political landscape has been thrown into turmoil as both President Yoon Suk-Yeol and his temporary replacement face impeachment in a dramatic series of events that has shaken the nation's democratic institutions. On December 14th, the National Assembly impeached President Yoon over his role in the December 3rd martial law crisis, only to follow up by impeaching Acting President Han Duck-soo on December 27th for allegedly obstructing the investigation into Yoon's actions.

The Fall and Potential Arrest

As they look into whether the ousted president's brief martial law order constituted to rebellion, South Korean law enforcement officers have now considerably intensified the situation by asking for a court warrant to jail him. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials, which is in charge of a combined investigation with military and police authorities, has taken the step to examine Yoon on allegations of inciting a rebellion and abusing power, which cut through his presidential immunity.

The details emerging from the investigation paint a troubling picture for President Yoon regarding the events of December 3rd. According to testimony from arrested Army Special Warfare Command commander Kwak Jong-keun, Yoon ordered troops to "quickly destroy the door and drag out the lawmakers who are inside" the assembly's main chamber. The military operation extended beyond the National Assembly to the National Election Commission, where troops were deployed under what Yoon claimed was an investigation into election system vulnerabilities – claims that have been roundly rejected by the commission.

The Constitutional Dilemma

The impeachment process has been complicated by vacancies on the Constitutional Court, where only six of nine justice positions are currently filled. This mathematical quirk means that if just one justice opposes Yoon's impeachment, he could avoid removal from office. The situation was further complicated when Han Duck-soo, during his brief tenure as Acting President, refused to appoint the three additional justices needed to complete the bench.

The path to Han's impeachment was paved by a controversial rule change. While Yoon's impeachment required a two-thirds majority of 200 votes, Speaker Woo Won-shik announced that only a simple majority of 151 votes would be needed to impeach Han. The vote passed with 192 MPs in favor, though the President's People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the proceedings, denouncing them as an abuse of power.

Economic and Security Implications

The political crisis has sent shockwaves through South Korea's economy and security apparatus. The nation's currency has plummeted to its lowest point in 16 years, and new Acting President Choi Sang-mok has placed the military on high alert for potential North Korean provocations. The situation has been further complicated by a tragic plane crash that killed 179 people, testing the interim government's crisis management capabilities.

Yoon's legal team, led by lawyer Yoon Kap-keun, has challenged the detention warrant's validity, arguing that the anti-corruption agency lacks the legal authority to investigate rebellion charges. The situation is further complicated by legal provisions protecting locations linked to military secrets from searches without consent, raising obvious questions about how authorities would enforce a detention order if it was granted.

Looking Ahead

The Constitutional Court now faces the unusual task of deciding both Yoon's and Han's fates. If Yoon is removed from office, South Korea will hold new presidential elections within 60 days, with current polling strongly favoring opposition leader Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party. The nation finds itself at a crossroads, with its democratic institutions being tested in ways not seen since the authoritarian era of the 1980s.

The crisis has also revealed deep fissures in South Korea's political system. Yoon's defense of the martial law decree as a "necessary act of governance" against what he termed an "anti-state" opposition has echoed authoritarian rhetoric of the past. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party views his potential arrest as the first step toward "ending the rebellion and restoring normalcy."

The outcome will not only determine the immediate political future of South Korea but could also set important precedents for the balance of power between the presidency, parliament, and judiciary in one of Asia's most vital economies.

France Begins Military Withdrawal from Chad

_{By Bianca Bridger, Staff Writer For Atlas}

France has officially handed over its first military base in Chad, located in Faya-Largeau, as part of its planned withdrawal of forces from the country. The transfer was confirmed by Chad's chief of military staff, who stated that the base was handed over in accordance with the timeline and conditions previously agreed upon with France. The Chadian military also indicated that it would keep the public informed about the progress of the withdrawal from other French-controlled bases in the country, including those in the eastern city of Abeche and the capital, N'Djamena.

Withdrawal Operations

Following the base handover, French troops departed Faya-Largeau and began their journey to N'Djamena, located approximately 780 kilometers to the south. While the exact number of French soldiers involved in the withdrawal has not been disclosed, reports suggest that around 1,000 French personnel were stationed across Chad before the pullback began. The French military is also in the process of removing its equipment from Chad. As part of the withdrawal, an Antonov 124 cargo plane took off from the country, carrying 70 tonnes of military supplies, including vehicles and equipment. French authorities have confirmed that military vehicles will be repatriated by January 2024, with the transport taking place via the port of Douala in neighboring Cameroon.

Strategic Implications

The withdrawal of French forces from Chad follows the Chadian government's decision last month to end its long-standing military cooperation with France. This decision marks a significant shift in the country's foreign policy and its military alliances. For decades, France provided critical logistical, intelligence, and air support to Chad's military, which relied on French assistance during several key military campaigns.

Political Context and Regional Impact

The timing of the French military's pullout is particularly significant as it comes just days before Chad's parliamentary and local elections, scheduled for Sunday. The country is undergoing a period of political transition following the death of longtime President Idriss Déby in 2021, and the handover of military bases from France could play a role in shaping the political landscape. The decision to end military cooperation with France has been framed as an effort by Chad to assert its sovereignty and reduce reliance on foreign military support, amid broader shifts in the Sahel region where several countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, have also moved away from France following recent military coups. While some see the pullback as a move toward greater independence, others question how Chad will manage security challenges in the absence of French support, especially given the continued threats posed by insurgent and extremist groups in the region.

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