The BLUF - February 10th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Vance Inks Armenia Nuclear Deal, Becomes First Sitting Oval Office Official To Visit

• Cuba Forces Flight Cancellations As Fuel Rations Go Into Effect

• Ukraine To Open Weapon Export Centers In Policy Pivot

Vance Inks Armenia Nuclear Deal, Becomes First Sitting Oval Office Official To Visit

_{By: Atlas}

Vice President JD Vance arrived in Yerevan on Monday, becoming the first sitting U.S. president or vice president to visit Armenia. He met with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the President's Residence, where the two completed negotiations on a civil nuclear energy agreement and discussed the status of a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Vance and his wife, Usha, were greeted with a red carpet, an honor guard, and a delegation of officials. Armenian and American flags lined the motorcade route into the city. A small number of demonstrators were visible along the road, including one holding a sign that read, "Does Trump support Devils?"

The vice president called Pashinyan "a great friend of ours and a real ally in peace and development in this region of the world." He also referenced Armenia's adoption of Christianity in 301 A.D., calling the country "one of the oldest Christian cultures in the entire world."

Pashinyan described the visit as "of truly historic and symbolic importance" and said it "reflects the depth of the strong and strategic partnership forged between the Republic of Armenia and the United States of America."

The nuclear agreement

The centerpiece of Monday's visit was the completion of what is known as a 123 Agreement — the legal framework that permits the United States to license nuclear technology and equipment to another country. Under the terms, the deal could facilitate up to $5 billion in initial U.S. exports to Armenia, along with an additional $4 billion in longer-term fuel and maintenance contracts.

"This agreement will open a new chapter in the deepening energy partnership between Armenia and the United States," Pashinyan said at a joint press conference.

Armenia is currently reviewing proposals from U.S., Russian, Chinese, French, and South Korean companies to build a new nuclear reactor to replace its sole operating plant, the Russian-built Metsamor facility. No selection has been made, but Monday's signing clears the legal path for an American firm to compete for the project.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told the outlet Izvestia that state nuclear corporation Rosatom was prepared to proceed with its own proposal. "There are no real alternatives in terms of the availability of reliable, proven technologies, as well as the attractiveness of financial parameters," he said.

Narek Sukiasyan, a political scientist in Yerevan, offered a different read. "Considering Armenia's multiplicity of dependencies on Russia, it is a political priority to diversify partners when it comes to nuclear cooperation," he said. "The United States seems to be the preference now."

Defense and economic commitments

Beyond the nuclear deal, Vance announced an $11 million sale of U.S. drone technology to Armenia, a partnership on Nvidia chip exports to the country, and pledged broader American investment in Armenian infrastructure.

"We're not just making peace for Armenia," Vance said. "We're also creating real prosperity for Armenia and the United States together."

He called the agreement a "win-win" that would generate energy exports, economic development, and security benefits for both countries. Pashinyan noted that he and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had jointly nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize following the White House peace summit last August, and said he had "great hope" the award would be granted in 2026.

Vance also said he endorsed Pashinyan in upcoming Armenian elections.

The TRIPP corridor and unresolved issues

Vance's visit also served to advance the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP — a proposed 43-kilometer road-and-rail corridor that would run through southern Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. The route would include updated rail infrastructure, oil and gas pipelines, and fiber-optic cables, and is designed to link Central Asia and the Caspian basin to Europe while bypassing Russia and Iran.

The framework for TRIPP was established in August 2025, when Pashinyan and Aliyev signed an agreement at the White House. Under that deal, Armenia recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan recognized Armenian sovereignty over the Syunik province, through which the corridor would pass. Foreign ministers from both countries initialed the text of a broader peace treaty, but neither leader has formally signed it and neither parliament has ratified it.

"We are very close to that point, if not there yet," Pashinyan said Monday, referring to what he called a point "of no return" in the peace process.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced an implementation framework for TRIPP in January. A team of American engineers has already arrived in Armenia to begin surveying work for the project, according to Stepan Sargsyan, a former Armenian governor with close ties to the prime minister.

"Right now, the Americans and Armenians and their Arab counterparts are working very diligently and very expeditiously to bring it into fruition," Sargsyan said.

Not all Armenians welcome the project. Protesters gathered along Vance's motorcade route holding signs that read "Syunik is not for sale" and "The Trap or TRIPP?" More than 20 Armenian human rights organizations sent an open letter urging the vice president to press for the release of Armenian detainees held in Azerbaijani prisons. Last week, an Azerbaijani military court handed lengthy sentences, including life terms, to Armenian separatist leaders in a war crimes trial.

What comes next

Vance arrived in Armenia after spending four days at the Winter Olympics in Milan with his family. He is scheduled to travel to Azerbaijan on Tuesday to continue discussions on the peace process.

Both Pashinyan and Aliyev sit on President Trump's Board of Peace, a body originally established to oversee the Gaza ceasefire plan but which has since expanded in scope. Trump plans to convene the board's first meeting in Washington on February 19.

Armenia has frozen its participation in a Russian-led security pact and has moved to deepen ties with Washington and the European Union. Vance's itinerary does not include a stop in Georgia, once Washington's closest ally in the South Caucasus. U.S. officials have pointed to what they describe as democratic backsliding and a pro-Russian tilt in Tbilisi, and Washington suspended its strategic partnership agreement with Georgia.

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