The BLUF - February 11th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Syria-Lebanon Clashes, A Sign Of What May Come

• Colombian Interior Minister Resigns Amid Political Turmoil

• Ecuador Heads to Runoff Election Between Noboa and González

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Syria-Lebanon Clashes, A Sign Of What May Come

_{By Maxwell Ingalls, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern at Atlas}

On Thursday, February 6^th; clashes were reported along the Lebanese Syrian border as the new Syrian transitional government continues an ongoing campaign of stopping smuggling to and from Syria. Assad’s regime was notorious for its heavy involvement in the Middle Eastern drug trade, particularly in the drug Captagon, a stimulant similar to Adderall. Many of these stimulants flow into the gulf states and Saudi Arabia but have also been found in the hands of militant groups like ISIS. Assad’s regime was so integrated in the production of the drug that even Assad family members and specific Syrian Arab Army (SAA) units were directly responsible for the production and trafficking of Captagon and profited $7.3 Billion from the trade. Iran has also increasingly used Syria as a logistics and smuggling point since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War, mainly to arm Lebanese Hezbollah and various Palestinian militant groups. Weapons smuggled range from various small arms such as AK and M4 pattern rifles to Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs) and long-range missile components. Because Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah supported Assad by way of fighters and political and economic support, the current Syrian transitional government led Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has cracked down on the pro-Iranian infrastructure and influence throughout the country.

Recent Clashes

On February 6^th the Syrian Border Security Department (BSD) conducted an operation in the Homs countryside near the Lebanese border in the town of Hawik, which is a Lebanese town on the Syrian side of the Syria-Lebanon border. The operation targeted two tribal clans affiliated Iran and Hezbollah and who were notorious for smuggling both weapons and Captagon into Lebanon for Assad’s regime, those being the Zaiter and Jaafar clans. In the first day of fighting, it was reported that three were killed and 10 injured on the Lebanese side while on HTS fighter was killed. The Lebanese smugglers also captured two HTS fighters, which led to HTS taking over a dozen women and children hostage from the village leading to a tense standoff. In the early morning hours of February 8^th, a hostage exchange occurred between the Syrian transitional government and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) who negotiated the exchange. The two HTS fighters were released to the BSD and the women and children were handed over to the LAF without incident.

On February 8^th and 9^th, clashes continued with several videos showing the use of Anti-Aircraft guns by both HTS fighters and Lebanese clansmen. The LAF reported that both artillery and gunfire landed inside Lebanese territory. This caused the LAF to deploy more forces to its north and eastern borders with Syria. Although the new Syrian government denies this, stating that they are only operating within Syrian territory. In addition to gunfire and artillery shelling, HTS has also employed Shaheed drones that were captured after the fall of Assad’s regime, which were delivered to Syria by Iran. Several of these drones were reportedly shot down by Lebanese clansmen and Hezbollah fighters within Lebanese territory. Throughout the clashes, the Lebanese military has reasserted its authority over much of the fighting area and has conducted several raids on Lebanese residence’s and suspected Hezbollah fighter’s homes and have seized RPGs, ammunition, and various weapons such as AKM rifles and PK machine-guns.

On February 10^th, the Syrian transitional government’s BSD announced that the operation had been completed, and several wanted smugglers were arrested alongside firearms and Captagon pills. In addition, it was reported that the Zaiter and Jaafar clans have crossed over into Lebanese territory, after living on the Syrian side of the border for generations, to “avoid friction”. They claim this did not work and HTS continued to fire into Lebanese villages along the border. However, the LAF has created a buffer between the clans and HTS which has largely quelled the violence outside a few sporadic exchanges of gunfire. The new Syrian government has also restricted border access to Lebanese nationals, not allowing them entry into Syria unless they have a residency permit or are married to a Syria citizen. This is almost a direct policy reversal from Assad’s regime, which let any Lebanese national in as long as they showed their Lebanese ID.

Looking Forward

Although the violence has largely been quelled in the meantime due to the withdrawal of smugglers into Lebanon and the ending of the smuggling operation by the Syrian transitional government, there are still worrying signs that violence may continue in the new Syria. For one, Iran may already be putting a plan into motion to destabilize the new Syrian state. A group called the “Syrian Popular Resistance” has claimed several attacks since the fall of Assad on HTS checkpoints and convoys. It is believed that the group is made up of mostly ex-SAA soldiers and is primarily based in the Latakia Governorate, a stronghold of Alawism, the same religion of Assad and most of his regime. The group has also recently claimed attacks in the Rif Dimashq Governorate extending from Damascus to Syria’s border with Jordan and Iraq signaling that there could possibly be some form of organized insurgency forming. In addition, several pro-Iranian Iraqi militias have also released statements in recent weeks in which they claim that they will militarily oppose the new Syrian state. As the Syrian transitional government continues to consolidate control over Syrian territory, there will surely be more confrontations like the one over the weekend to come.

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