The BLUF - February 17th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Iran Holds Talks With UN Nuclear Oversight Head Ahead Of U.S. Negotiations

• French Authorities Raid Arab World Institute As Epstein Crackdown Widens

• U.S. Signals Strong Support For Orban’s Leadership In Upcoming Election In Hungary

Iran Holds Talks With UN Nuclear Oversight Head Ahead Of U.S. Negotiations

_{By: Atlas}

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sat down with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Geneva on Monday, hours before a second round of indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States — talks that President Donald Trump said he would be "indirectly" involved in from Washington.

The meeting with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi marked the first substantive technical engagement between Tehran and the UN nuclear watchdog since Iran suspended cooperation with the agency following the 12-day war with Israel last June, during which the United States bombed three of Iran's nuclear facilities.

"Just completed in-depth technical discussions with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in preparation for important negotiations scheduled for tomorrow in Geneva," Grossi wrote on X after the meeting.

Araghchi, for his part, struck a tone that was equal parts diplomatic and defiant. "I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal," he posted. "What is not on the table: submission before threats."

The Tuesday talks will be mediated by Oman, whose Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi helped broker the first round of indirect negotiations in Muscat on February 6. Switzerland is serving as the neutral venue. The American delegation is again expected to be led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

What both sides want — and where they diverge

The core dispute has not changed. Washington wants Iran to forgo uranium enrichment entirely and has pushed to expand the scope of negotiations to include Tehran's ballistic missile stockpile and its support for regional armed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran has flatly refused on both counts.

Tehran says it will discuss curbs to its nuclear program — but only in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions that have strangled its economy. Zero enrichment is a nonstarter, Iranian officials have said repeatedly, and the missile program is what Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi called a defensive matter that is "never negotiable."

"The ball is in America's court," Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC on Sunday. "They have to prove they want to have a deal with us. If we see a sincerity on their part, I am sure that we will be on a road to have an agreement."

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Monday that Washington's position on the nuclear issue "has moved towards a more realistic one" since the Muscat round. He added that the IAEA would play "an important role" in the upcoming mediated talks, though he also renewed Tehran's criticism of Grossi for not condemning the military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites — facilities that are protected under agency safeguards as part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Trump weighs in from Air Force One

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday night, Trump confirmed his indirect involvement and said he believed Iran was motivated to negotiate.

"I'll be involved in those talks — indirectly — and they'll be very important, and we'll see what can happen," Trump said.

He described Iran as tough negotiators, then corrected himself. "I would say they're bad negotiators, because we could have had a deal instead of sending the B-2s in to knock out their nuclear potential, and we had to send the B-2s. I hope they're going to be more reasonable."

"I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal," he added.

The comments came just days after Trump said a change of government in Iran "would be the best thing that could happen" and ordered a second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the Middle East from the Caribbean to join the existing naval buildup.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Budapest on Monday, was more measured but still cautious. "I think that there's an opportunity here to diplomatically reach an agreement that addresses the things we're concerned about," Rubio said. "But I don't want to overstate it either. It's going to be hard. It's been very difficult for anyone to do real deals with Iran, because we're dealing with radical Shia clerics who are making theological decisions, not geopolitical ones."

The missing uranium question

One of the most pressing technical issues hanging over the talks is the fate of Iran's stockpile of approximately 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. The IAEA has been unable to verify the status of that material since the June war, when U.S. and Israeli strikes hit facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.

Grossi has previously said the stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium — a short technical step from weapons-grade levels — could theoretically allow Iran to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs, though he stressed that does not mean Tehran possesses such weapons.

Iran has offered to consider diluting the enriched uranium or allowing some form of international oversight, but has rejected any proposal to transfer the material out of the country. Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran's nuclear agency, said Monday that Iran would be willing to dilute the 60% stockpile if all sanctions were removed — but dismissed talk of shipping the uranium abroad as a demand driven by "pressure groups."

Tehran has allowed the IAEA limited access to sites that were not damaged in the June strikes but has blocked inspectors from visiting the bombed facilities, citing radiation concerns. Grossi has said the sites are safe enough to inspect and that inspections are long overdue.

Military posturing on both sides

The diplomatic track is running in parallel with an unmistakable military one. On Monday morning, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a naval exercise dubbed "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz," designed to test the readiness of IRGC naval units to protect the waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil flows.

Sailors passing through the region received radio warnings of a likely live-fire drill in the northern lane of the strait on Tuesday — the same day the Geneva talks are set to begin.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for any attack, a move that would send crude prices sharply higher and roil global energy markets.

On the American side, the military buildup continues to grow. The deployment of the Ford carrier strike group adds to the forces already in the region, and U.S. officials have told multiple outlets that the military is preparing for the possibility of a sustained campaign if diplomacy fails.

Tensions between the two navies flared as recently as February 4, when a U.S. Navy fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. Iran also harassed a U.S.-flagged merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz around the same time.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who met with Trump in Washington last week, has urged the administration to ensure that any deal includes the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure — not merely a halt to enrichment. "There shall be no enrichment capability — not stopping the enrichment process, but dismantling the equipment and the infrastructure that allows you to enrich in the first place," Netanyahu said.

Whether the Geneva round produces anything beyond agreement to keep talking remains to be seen. What is clear is that both sides are arriving at the table with significant leverage — and significant red lines — with the window for diplomacy narrowing by the week.

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