The BLUF - February 24th

Good morning everyone,

This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Russia-Ukraine War Enters 5th Year

• Hungary Blocks €90 Billion E.U. Loan To Ukraine

• U.S. & Iran Edge Closer To Kinetic War

Russia-Ukraine War Enters 5th Year

_{By: Atlas}

Tuesday marked four years since Russian forces crossed into Ukraine. There was no ceasefire to mark the occasion, no deal on the horizon, and no sign that either side is prepared to accept the other's terms. What there was, instead, was another round of drone strikes, another diplomatic statement, and another set of numbers that have grown large enough to be almost incomprehensible.

The war is now entering its fifth year. It remains the deadliest conflict on European soil since World War II.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa traveled to Kyiv on Tuesday for a commemoration ceremony. They visited an energy facility damaged by Russian strikes and met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before joining a videoconference with Britain, France, Germany, and other countries in what has been called the "Coalition of the Willing." German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said from Berlin that the Russian economy was "creaking under the weight of sanctions and of warfare." French President Emmanuel Macron said his country's commitment to Ukraine was continuing.

The statements were notable mainly for what they were not: a breakthrough.

What the Numbers Say

Four years in, the scale of the destruction is documented if not fully measurable.

The United Nations has verified nearly 15,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine since the February 2022 invasion, with the agency noting the real figure is likely considerably higher. It has no access to Russian-occupied areas, including Mariupol, where thousands are believed to have died during a Russian siege. More than 40,600 Ukrainian civilians have been injured. Last year was the deadliest for civilians since the war began — 2,514 killed and 12,142 injured, a 31 percent increase from 2024.

At least 763 children have been killed, according to UN figures. Around 20,000 children have been forcibly displaced or taken from Russian-occupied Ukrainian land, by Kyiv's estimate. Some 5.9 million Ukrainians have left the country entirely; another 3.7 million have been displaced within it.

The military toll on both sides is harder to verify. Neither government releases comprehensive data. Zelenskyy said earlier this month that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, a figure widely considered an undercount. Russia has not issued an official update on its own losses since September 2022. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates Russia has suffered up to 325,000 troop deaths — the highest for any major power in any conflict since World War II, the think tank said. Ukraine's military fatalities are estimated between 100,000 and 140,000. Combined casualties, counting the killed, wounded, and missing on both sides, reach as high as 1.8 million.

Russia currently occupies approximately 19.4 percent of Ukrainian territory, including the roughly 7 percent it held before the full-scale invasion. Over the past year, it gained an additional 0.79 percent. Slow, grinding progress — at enormous cost.

The Economic Picture

Ukraine's economy contracted by nearly a third in the first year of the war. It has recovered partially since, but Kyiv is now dependent on the IMF and other foreign lenders to fund day-to-day government operations. The cost of rebuilding the country is estimated at $588 billion over the next decade, according to a joint assessment by the World Bank, UN, and European Commission released Monday.

Russia's economic picture is more complex. Military spending rose to roughly 9 percent of GDP, producing short-term growth. But that expansion slowed to just 1 percent last year. Oil and gas revenues, which fund approximately a quarter of the Russian state budget, fell to a five-year low as Western sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure reduced exports. Inflation has pushed up the cost of basic goods for Russian households.

Europe has provided roughly 201 billion euros in combined aid to Ukraine since 2022. The United States contributed $115 billion in total before the Trump administration halted direct weapons transfers after taking office. European countries have since increased their military contributions by 67 percent compared to the prior three-year period, according to Germany's Kiel Institute. North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces and is widely reported to have supplied millions of artillery shells. Iran has supplied drone technology. China has become Russia's most significant economic partner.

Talks, and the Lack of Progress

Since Trump returned to the White House, American officials have pursued negotiations with both sides. Talks have been held in Istanbul, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva. The Geneva round concluded on February 17 and 18 without a deal.

The core dispute has not moved. Russia is demanding full control of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, including areas it does not yet hold, and wants a ban on Western military support for Kyiv. Ukraine's position is that handing over territory is constitutionally impossible and unacceptable to its population. Zelenskyy has insisted on firm security guarantees from Washington before agreeing to any territorial concessions. Russia has rejected proposals for European troops to be deployed in Ukraine after any ceasefire.

Zelenskyy's chief of staff said another round of talks could take place by the end of this week.

Putin, speaking at a ceremony marking Russia's "Defenders of the Fatherland Day," said his forces were defending Russia's borders and pursuing "strategic parity." He has said repeatedly that Russia will continue by force if diplomacy fails.

On the Ground

Monday brought one unexpected development on the battlefield. Ukraine's armed forces commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Ukrainian forces had "restored control" over 400 square kilometers of territory along a stretch of the southern front. It would be the largest Ukrainian territorial gain since December and one of the biggest in many months. Moscow did not immediately respond to the claim.

Meanwhile, the Russian campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure has continued through the winter. The World Health Organization has documented nearly 2,900 attacks affecting medical care in Ukraine since 2022, a nearly 20 percent increase from the year before. About one-fifth of Ukrainian land is contaminated by mines or unexploded ordnance. Two people were killed and three wounded in Russian drone attacks on the Odesa region overnight, Ukrainian emergency services said Tuesday.

A survey conducted in late January by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, while massive Russian strikes were knocking out power and heat during temperatures that dropped to minus 25 degrees Celsius, found that 65 percent of Ukrainians said they were prepared to continue resisting as long as necessary. That figure was up from 62 percent in September and December of last year.

The war that was expected in some quarters to last days is now in its fifth year. Neither side has budged on its fundamental position. The anniversary came and went with speeches, ceremonies, and more fighting.

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