The BLUF - February 25th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Post Election: A New Germany

• Zelensky States He’s Ready To Step Down for Peace

• Britain Needs Elon and His ‘Nerd Army’ - Former PM

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A New Germany

_{By: Pete Eskander, Residing Fellow for Atlas}

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) has emerged victorious in Germany's federal election, with Friedrich Merz set to become the next chancellor after his party secured 28.4% of the vote. The February 23rd election delivered a stark rebuke to the outgoing coalition government, with Alternative for Germany (AfD) capturing a historic 20.4% to claim second place.

The results reveal a nation deeply dissatisfied with the status quo. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a humiliating defeat, recording their worst performance since World War II with just 16.4%. The poor showing prompted Scholz to describe it as "a bitter election result for the SPD."

Voter turnout reached 84%, the highest since German reunification in 1990, underlining the election's significance to a German public eager for change. The Greens managed to claim 12.2%, while the far-left Die Linke secured 8.9%.

In his victory speech, Merz struck both celebratory and pragmatic notes. "Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we start working," he told supporters. "The world out there is not waiting for us."

The New Chancellor

Friedrich Merz, 69, brings a background in corporate law and business to the chancellorship. His path to power represents a remarkable political comeback after earlier career setbacks in the early 2000s, when he lost an internal power struggle with Angela Merkel.

Merz began regaining influence in 2010 as Merkel's policies shifted, particularly regarding the refugee crisis that saw over a million Syrians enter Germany in 2015. His support grew as he pushed the CDU further right on immigration while advocating for deregulation and tax cuts.

Despite his victory, Merz's 28.4% represents the CDU's second-worst result in the post-war era, leaving him without a strong hand in upcoming coalition negotiations. His personal approval ratings show weakness among women and younger voters, though polls indicate the public sees his party as most competent in key policy areas including foreign security, immigration, and economic management.

On international matters, Merz has taken a surprisingly assertive stance toward the United States, recently declaring that "it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe." More controversially, he's called for finding a replacement for NATO "within a few months" – signaling a potential break with decades of German foreign policy.

Coalition Challenges

With no outright majority, Merz faces complex coalition negotiations. Having ruled out partnership with the AfD, his most likely options include the SPD or Greens.

Most analysts predict a two-party "grand coalition" between the CDU/CSU and SPD as the most probable outcome. This arrangement would provide a more comfortable parliamentary majority than pairing with the Greens, though policy differences remain significant.

"People vote for Merz because they want a center-right government," political theorist Ralph Schoellhammer told The Epoch Times, "but they are probably going to end up getting a slightly left-of-center government because he's standing alone."

Should the two-party coalition prove elusive, Merz might pursue a three-way arrangement, possibly a "Kenya" coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens) or "Germany" coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP). However, such arrangements risk policy gridlock through compromises that satisfy no one.

The negotiations come at a critical moment for Germany and Europe. The CDU will need to find common ground with potential partners on immigration controls, economic revival, and defense spending – likely requiring painful concessions from all sides.

Germany's Challenges

Merz inherits a Germany facing multiple crises. The country is in its second year of economic contraction, struggling with lost access to cheap Russian gas, historic manufacturing struggles including Volkswagen plant closures, and fierce competition from Chinese electric vehicles.

Immigration remains perhaps the most divisive issue. Germany's net population increased by more than 3.5 million between 2014 and 2024, driven entirely by migration. A recent YouGov poll found 80% of Germans believe immigration levels have been too high over the past decade, fueling the AfD's rise.

The new government must also address Germany's energy security, defense spending amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, and deteriorating transatlantic relations. Merz campaigned on tighter border controls and economic deregulation, but has wavered on other issues like nuclear energy.

The AfD Factor

The AfD's second-place finish marks a watershed moment in German politics. The party doubled its support from 10% in 2021 to over 20%, cementing its position as a major political force despite being shunned by establishment parties.

The far-right party dominates across former East Germany, while the CDU maintains control in the West. AfD co-chair Alice Weidel confidently declared they "will overtake CDU at next election."

While Merz has categorically ruled out cooperation with the AfD, their strong showing puts pressure on his government to address the concerns that drove their rise – particularly immigration and economic insecurity. The CDU's pre-election attempts to tighten immigration laws, blocked by Scholz's coalition, illustrate the political challenge.

"There's only one question that matters for today's election in Germany," noted IIF economist Robin Brooks, "does the outcome hurt or help the AfD? CDU tried to tighten immigration law before the election, but was undercut by SPD and Greens. CDU now goes weakened into coalition negotiations. The only winner is AfD."

International Implications

Merz's victory comes at a pivotal moment for European and transatlantic relations. His statements on American indifference toward Europe and calls for NATO alternatives suggest a potentially significant shift in German foreign policy.

With a center-right government showing greater independence from Washington, Germany may seek to reshape European security architecture. Merz shares some philosophical alignment with conservative values in the U.S., but his comments indicate skepticism about America's reliability as a security partner.

On defense spending, widespread consensus exists about Germany's need to meet NATO commitments. However, this requires constitutional workarounds to Germany's strict debt rules – something requiring broader parliamentary support than Merz may command.

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