The BLUF - January 13th

Good morning everyone,

This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Trump: Any Country Doing Business With Iran Faces 25% Tariff

• Canada PM Seeks To Enhance Ties With China In Upcoming Visit To Beijing

• EU Leverages Trade And Security Cooperation In Bid To Secure India Free Trade Agreement

Trump: Any Country Doing Business With Iran Faces 25% Tariff

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, a move that could potentially affect U.S. trade with China, India, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and other major economies.

"Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. "This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

However, Trump does not appear to have issued an executive order to back up his statement as of late Monday afternoon. A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to questions about the social media post.

The announcement comes ahead of a much-anticipated Supreme Court ruling on whether many of Trump's most expansive tariffs are legal. Those tariffs, including his controversial "reciprocal" duties from early April and others related to purported fentanyl trafficking, were invoked using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. It was unclear if Trump's newly unveiled Iran-related tariffs also rest on that law.

Major trading partners potentially affected

The United States has little direct trade with Iran because of steep sanctions on the country imposed in recent decades to punish Tehran for its nuclear program. Last year, the U.S. imported just $6.2 million worth of goods from Iran and exported slightly more than $90 million worth of goods to the country in return, according to Commerce Department statistics.

However, the United States does substantial trade with countries that do business with Iran. China, Brazil, Turkey, India and Russia are Iran's largest trading partners, combining for more than $10 billion in trade annually, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are also important trading partners, according to the database Trading Economics.

The additional 25 percent tariff hitting Beijing exports, assuming it takes effect, risks upsetting the trade truce Trump negotiated with Chinese President Xi Jinping late last year. China is the world's top buyer of Iranian crude, and the nation's independent refiners were increasing their intake of the oil as of last month.

Michael Singh, former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, now the managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the tariff threat appeared to be a mild response.

"For President Trump this seems like a pretty mild response to a very significant situation in Iran and so this will probably disappoint many in the Iranian American community," Singh said. "The problem is that we have sanctions in place against Iran that are quite tough, but they're not being enforced — I mean Iran is selling lots of oil, and so I think the question will be what's new here and is it going to be enforced, unlike the other sanctions that are already in place."

Earlier this year, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on any country that buys Russian oil but so far has only taken that action against India, sparing China in the process. He also threatened in March to impose a 25 percent tariff on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela but does not appear to have followed through on that threat.

Hundreds killed in Iran protest crackdown

The tariff threat follows reports from human rights groups that hundreds of people have been killed in a brutal crackdown on protests against the Iranian regime that intensified over the weekend.

In the latest wave of protests, which have gripped the country for roughly two weeks amid worsening economic conditions, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's regime has killed at least 500 people and arrested 10,600 people, according to U.S.-based rights group Human Rights Activists in Iran. The number killed could be as high as 2,000, the Norway-based Iran Human Rights organization said Saturday.

Over the weekend, Iran's state-controlled media aired videos showing mass casualties wrapped in black bags in and outside a morgue. The "majority of them are ordinary people, and their families are ordinary people as well," state media said. It has been difficult for independent sources to verify the numbers, as the internet is down in Iran and phone lines have been cut off.

The unrest began in late December after Iran's currency collapsed, triggering a wave of anger that soon morphed into wider protests against the Islamic regime. Iran's official currency, the rial, has lost half of its value over the past year and fell to a record low of 1 million rials per U.S. dollar last month.

Many protesters are calling for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, to lead the country. Over the weekend, Pahlavi said he stands ready to return to Iran "at the first possible opportunity" should Khamenei be overthrown.

Trump weighs military options alongside tariffs

Trump has previously warned that the U.S. could intervene if Iran's government uses violence against the protesters. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Monday that potential airstrikes and diplomacy were among the options Trump was considering.

"I think one thing President Trump is very good at is always keeping all of his options on the table," Leavitt said. "Airstrikes would be one of the many, many options that are on the table for the commander in chief. Diplomacy is always the first option for the president."

A senior U.S. official told CBS News on Sunday that Trump had been briefed on "new options" for military strikes in Iran, including nonmilitary sites.

"We're looking at it very seriously. The military is looking at it, and we're looking at some very strong options," Trump told reporters on Air Force One late Sunday. "I'm getting an hourly report and we're going to make a determination."

Trump told reporters Sunday that Iran was starting to cross the "red line" in how the country's leadership cracked down on the protests.

"We may have to act before a meeting. ... There seem to be some people killed that aren't supposed to be killed," the president said. "They rule through violence."

Iran says it's ready for war but open to talks

Iran's top diplomat said earlier Monday that his country isn't looking for conflict but is "prepared for war."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking at an ambassador conference in Tehran, said his country is "even more prepared than the previous war," referring to Iran's 12-day war against Israel in June, which severely damaged the Islamic republic's defense and nuclear infrastructure.

However, he said Iran is open to negotiations with the U.S. and is hoping for a peaceful solution to ongoing tensions.

"We are also ready for negotiations, but negotiations that are fair, with equal rights and mutual respect," Araghchi said.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran had never left the negotiating table but would not engage in "one-sided negotiations." Baghaei added that communication channels between Araghchi and White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff remain open.

"The leaders of Iran called," Trump told reporters Sunday, adding that "a meeting is being set up... They want to negotiate."

Iran has warned the U.S. and Israel against any intervention, and President Masoud Pezeshkian is directly blaming both countries for the unrest. Tehran and Washington have not had formal diplomatic ties for decades.

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