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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Analysis of SDF Drone Operations in Syria

• Wildfire Damage in LA Fires Continue To Grow

• Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro Takes Office For A Third Term

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Analysis: SDF Drone Operations in Syria

_{By Max Ingalls, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

Background

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, drone warfare has entered the spotlight in conventual conflicts. This is especially true when it comes to intelligence gathering on the battlefield and identifying enemy troop movements and groupings. However, the most effective use for drones thus far is their use as guided and loitering munitions, in the form of first-person view (FPV) suicide drones and drones fitted with mechanisms that can drop munitions (somewhat accurately) onto enemy emplacements and equipment. However, drones have played a pivotal role In insurgencies and smaller-scale conflicts for over a decade.

Through technological developments, drones are quickly leveling the playing field between state-actors and non-state groups; providing a form of aerial reconnaissance and guided offensive weapon that would have otherwise been unattainable without some form of aircraft. Another conflict that has seen widespread use of drones by insurgent groups is Syria. Since the fall of Assad and the renewed SNA/Turkish assault on the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) drones have taken a leading role in the Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) strategy to combat Turkish proxies.

SDF Anti-Vehicle Drones

In recent weeks, the SDF has posted several videos showing its drone forces striking SNA positions across the frontline, particularly around vital river crossings that would allow the SNA to cut of SDF supplies to the city of Kobani, located on the border between Turkey and the AANES. To do this the SNA with Turkish air-support has been attempting to cross at two major points: the Tishreen Hydroelectric Dam and the Qara Qawzak bridge. Thus far these attacks have largely failed after the initial success of the SNA offensive against Manbij in December. One major reason for this is two-fold, the use of drones by the SDF and poor tactics of the SNA.

It would seem the preferred drone of the SDF is the locally named “Brusk” drone. The drone is usually made using DJI Mavic rotary wing quadcopters fitted with an external battery pack to provide for longer range with heavier payloads. In videos posted by the SDF themselves, they have also acquired goggles for the drones allowing for precise first-person guidance of the munition. Normally, the SDF fits various types of modified RPG-7 rounds to FPV drones depending on the target of the attack. In several videos, It would seem PG-7, PG-7L, and PG-7M rockets are used for vehicle strikes; from soft armored vehicles like pickup trucks and SUVs to armored vehicles like T-62 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) and US made M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs).

All three of these rockets are basic High Explosive Anti Armor (HEAT) rounds designed in the Soviet Union in the 1960s and 1970s that concentrate the explosive force of the warhead into a small metal disk (usually made of copper) that concaves and punches a hole through the armor of the target. In addition to these older rounds the SDF also has released footage of FPV drones equipped with PG-7R rounds, a HEAT round that is also a tandem-shaped-charge (TSC).

This is essentially a two-stage rocket designed to defeat Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) in newer in MBTs that uses a smaller explosive to trip the ERA, and then a larger explosive which then strikes the exposed armor of the vehicle. This round was also produced In the Soviet Union but in the late 1980s. In footage released by the SDF, these FPV drones seem to be highly effective with several SNA vehicles and MBTs being destroyed, especially considering the price of a DJI Mavic (around $3,000 on the DJI website), compared to the heavily used Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drone at nearly $5 million per unit. Interestingly, an organization called “Drones for Rojava” has begun collecting donations since December for the purchase and transfer of non-lethal drones and drone components to the SDF. It seeks donations through its social media pages specifically X and Telegram and takes donations through various cryptocurrencies.

SDF Anti-Infantry Drones

When dealing with SNA infantry formations in buildings and garages, the SDF has been seen using FPV drones fitted with TBG-7 RPG rounds. These warheads are thermobaric, which use a two-stage system that produces both heat and pressure through the form of a highly flammable aerosol gas which mixes with the oxygen in the air in the first charge and a second that ignites the fuel. They are particularly effective in enclosers as the pressure and subsequent vacuum without oxygen causes severe and more often than not fatal internal injuries. In addition to FPV drones, the SDF also uses quadcopters to drop munitions on soft armored vehicles and SNA troops. Both mortar rounds and projected grenades have been observed.

In one photo from X, an SDF member is holding what appears to be two 60mm High Explosive (HE) mortar rounds. In addition to both US and Iranian 60mm mortars, the SDF uses grenades made for launchers. Russian VOG-30 and US made 40mm grenades seem to be the most common variants of grenades used for this purpose. In several videos posted to social media, SDF drones are fitted with the US made M433 40mm grenade which is a high explosive dual purpose (HEDP) round making this grenade more versatile than other munitions as it can be used against both infantry and vehicles. From the videos posted it seems that this is quite effective at hitting small formations of SNA soldiers and vehicles like trucks and MLRS launchers. What may be the most significant development in SDF drone technology is the adaptation of thermal cameras to quadcopter drones that drop munitions. This greatly enhances the SDFs ability to target SNA formations at night-time especially due to the fact that the SNA largely lacks night vision/thermal goggles or optics making drones more difficult to detect. 

SNA Drone Capabilities

Unlike the SDF and its allied militias who have been using drones since 2014, the SNA is very new to drone warfare with a Syrian National Army affiliated news outlet announcing that they had just began using drones for attacks in August and September 2024. This puts them over a decade behind in drone tactics, operator skill, and number of operators. Turkey has long been the actor to make up for this lack of direct precision strikes through using their own drones in the AANES, specifically the domestically produced Bayraktar TB-2 (similar to a US Reaper). It has been reported that the SNA uses commercial drones similar to those of the SDF, however from social media it seems that they are both lacking in drones and operators to make any qualitative effect on the frontline. Interestingly, it would also seem that the SNA has not yet adapted to drone warfare with several videos showing large formations of SNA fighters and vehicles in tight formations out in the open which creates prime targets for SDF drones.  

Battlefield Impact

Judging from reports and social media posts coupled with SDF press releases, it would seem that the use of drones (both FPV and munition dropping variants) by the SDF is highly effective at defending against the SNA. For a little over a month the SNA has attempted to cross both the Tishreen Dam and the Qara Qawzak bridge with little success. From an apparent lack of training and electronic warfare capabilities the SNA has thus far been unable to overcome coordinated drone operations of the SDF. As mentioned above, SNA units seem to bunch up in large formations making it far easier for SDF drone units to not only track their movements but also strike them. This coincides with a report by the New Arab on January 8th that claimed over 199 SNA fighters killed compared to 56 SDF fighters. However, in recent days that the SNA has begun to launch another offensive against SDF positions (after a relative stalemate since the middle of December) with the help of Turkish artillery and air support. This would suggest that the SDF has been able to mount a proper defense of the areas it still controls and has even been able to regain territory in some areas along the Euphrates as Turkey is beginning to take on much more direct role in the conflict, suggesting recently that they would invade the AANES themselves if their demands were not met, i.e. the complete disarmament of the SDF.

Fires Rage On In Los Angeles

_{By Peter Eskander, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

Two fires have spread into Los Angeles County and caused a stir in the community by the speed with which the flames have carried over. Two fires had started, one being from the larger Palisades fires that had spread the night of January 8th as a result of high-speed Santa Ana winds and into Malibu, causing the second spread. The Eaton and Hurst fires also became problematic for firefighters with sparks and wind carrying over into sectors of Southern California and further east into Brentwood.

The Santa Ana Winds

These winds make the situation worse by pushing flames toward new, unburnt fuels or ‘bending’ them in directions where the fire can latch onto fuels, spread more rapidly, and grow. Winds also carry moisture and increase the oxygen in the system that’s currently under a wildfire, which can create drier more hazardous conditions for those on the ground combating the flames. Turbulent wind flows can also spread fires in a multitude of directions rather than burning a straight path, with the example of the Santa Ana Winds speeding south from Palisades and into Malibu, stopping it’s spread south but expanding further east into the Brentwood.

The spread of these fires might also be the result of convection columns which carry over particulates, debris, and other materials that help propagate the spread of flames, adding additional complexities to the increase in wildfires.

Death Toll and Costs

The count of those killed by the fire has risen to 25 with 5 dying in the Palisades and 17 dead in the Eaton fire within Altadena, as of Friday evening. The toll, officials suspect, is expected to rise as the fires continue to rage across Southern California. Sheriff Robert Luna has stated at a news conference that at least 23 people are still missing. It will take weeks, according to medical examiners to identify the bodies of those who have perished in the fires.

With current wind speeds, firefighter crews during the first few days are at 0% containment and more than 3,000 acres in the Palisades have been lost within a day or two. Containment is now at 11% days after the winds slowed. That number now has jumped drastically to 20,000 acres of land within greater Los Angeles. Hurst fires have spread along 100 acres within the first few days with the Palisades Fires still the largest in California’s history. Within Eaton Canyon, more than 400 acres have been lost. Santa Monica has issued evacuation orders for the area with over 62,000 affected by power outages. More than 5,000 structures are reported damaged in this area alone, with a total of 12,000 estimated to be damaged or destroyed completely. Meteorologists estimate that current wind speeds for Venture County and Los Angeles will be between 35 mph and 55 mph which is a drastic decrease from previously violent winds.

Evacuations and Response

Lawful evacuation orders have also been issued for Malibu, Pasadena, Alta
Dena, as well as San Vicente and Brentwood.

Wind gusts were expected to exceed 100mph the days following and dry conditions further propagated the spread of flames across these areas. Over 1,400 firefighters and retired firefighters were deployed on the first two days to address the situation. The current number of personnel exceeds 4,707 including inmates and firefighters from other nations, such as Mexico and Canada to help combat the wildfires.

FEMA has approved the Fire Management Assistance Grants for both Palisades and Eaton.
Governor Gavin Newson has declared a state of emergency and President Biden stayed in Los Angeles overnight, pledging federal assistance to impacted areas. Civilians were advised to avoid 210 fwy near Sylmar, and I-50 Sun Valley and the PCH in Malibu while fire crews clean up and contain the remainder of the fires.

The Biden Administration has prioritized suppression efforts to include wildland fire crews, engines, helicopters, air tankers, and specialized equipment to help combat the flames and build fire lines for containment. CalFire has maintained its focus – using the necessary equipment – on power generators and water pumps to keep power flowing to residents and adequate water flow to help in suppressing the fires. Funds for residents affected by fires, will be accessible through the approved Major Disaster Declaration for California. March Air Force Base has established supplies and equipment for fire crews to more readily position themselves against the raging wildfires, with The State of Colorado providing multi-mission fixed-wing aircraft to assist in the detection and imaging of the wildfire to help crews on the ground. Canada has provided two CL-415s from Quebec that are expected to arrive on Monday.

President Maduro Takes Office For a Third Term

_{By Trent Barr, Staff Writer For Atlas}

President Nicolas Maduro was sworn into office on Friday for his third term as president amid widespread accusations of electoral tampering and fraud by the opposition alliance known as the Unitary Platform. On Thursday, the Unitary Platform’s figurehead, Maria Corina Machado, led renewed protests against Maduro’s continued rule over Venezuela, leading to an intense confrontation with security forces that resulted in the wounding of Machado’s motorcycle driver and his ultimate arrest.

Inaugurated Amid Controversy

Maduro’s inauguration has led to another round of sanctions against key figures within the president’s government by the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom following the respective nations declaring the opposition presidential candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, as the true victor in the nation’s 2024 presidential election.

In Maduro’s inauguration speech, the president claimed the opposition, alongside supporters in the United States, were attempting to start a “world war” and that his contested victory in the polls was a “great victory” for Venezuela as a whole.

“I have not been made president by the government of the United States, nor by the pro-imperialist governments of Latin America,” Maduro said during his inauguration. “I come from the people, I am of the people, and my power emanates from history and from the people. And to the people, I owe my whole life, body, and soul.”

The results of Venezuela’s elections remain heavily contested between Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela and the Unitary Platform following the publication of voting records from polling sites across the country showing a victory for González by the opposition. Maduro’s victory was contested further following the publication of exit polls predicting an opposition victory by Edison Research, an American market research and polling company that has conducted exit polls internationally, which predicted González to win with 65 percent of the vote and ultimately acted as the catalyst for anti-government demonstrations in the wake of Maduro's alleged victory.

“Today Maduro didn’t put the sash on his chest. He put a shackle on his ankle, which will tighten every day,” Machado said in response to Maduro’s inauguration.

Following the announced victory for Maduro and the National Electoral Council’s (CNE) refusal to publish voting records as evidence of the incumbent’s victory, a number of nations levied condemnations against Maduro, including Peru, Chile, Argentina, and Panama. Following the announced victory of Maduro, Panama recalled their diplomatic staff in protest of Maduro’s continued rule. Diplomatic staff from Peru, Chile, and Argentina, however, were forcibly evicted from their diplomatic premises, leading to an intense diplomatic crisis regarding the Argentine embassy, as six campaign staffers working for the Unitary Platform had sheltered in the diplomatic premises in order to request asylum prior to the expulsion of Argentina’s diplomatic staff.

In response to heightening international relations, Maduro stated that he was preparing an armed defense alongside Nicaragua and Cuba, two nations that have long established their cooperation with Maduro and Chavez before him.

“We are preparing ourselves together with Cuba and Nicaragua and together with our older brothers in the world so that if one day we have to take up arms and defend the right to peace and sovereignty, we will fight in an armed struggle and win again. We are not lukewarm leaders; we are the Bolivarian revolution,” Maduro stated during the World Festival of the Antifascist International.

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