The BLUF - January 28th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Trump’s North American Gambit: Part 1 of 3

• Hamas Gains More Strength Through Recruitment

• Colombia Ends Negotiations With Paramilitary Group Amidst Growing Violence

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Trump’s North American Gambit: Part 1 of 3

_{By Hosmi Jericho, Geopolitical Analyst & Residing Fellow at Atlas}

After his re-election, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump wasted no time announcing sweeping changes to U.S. Foreign Policy. His Christmas day social media posts bemoaned the United States' loss of control over the Panama Canal. Separate posts that same day called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "governor" and stated the U.S. should annex Canada as its "51st State." He then proclaimed Greenland, an autonomous territory overseen by NATO ally Denmark, vital to the U.S. for "National Security Purposes" before threatening to forcibly take control of the island.

Since then, Trump reinforced his intention to exert U.S. control over the whole of North America. His inaugural address emphasized his belief in tariffs as a blunt negotiating instrument and his intention to remove the U.S. from "foreign wars." Trump announced later the same day he will shortly implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the U.S's two largest export markets who together receive about one-third of all U.S. exports. Trump's aggressive statements, coupled with the "mass deportations" initiative for which the President-Elect has long advocated, threaten to upend longstanding U.S. partnerships throughout the Americas.

China's Growing Footprint in the Americas

This shakeup occurs against the backdrop of significant Chinese expansion into North America over the past decade. In 2022, the last year on record, Chinese trade with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) reached nearly $500 Billion, trailing only slightly behind the United States. Importantly, Chinese companies have adapted how they partner with countries, increasingly paying to develop new companies and industries across Latin America. These so-called "greenfield" investments anchor China as a long-term partner in each country, working to grow the country's economy and upgrade its infrastructure. According to Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, Chinese greenfield investments in LAC from 2020-2023 amount to nearly $8 billion, double what it was in the four years ending 2019 and almost eight times the amount a decade prior. Since a nation's military safeguards its commerce, expect to see the People's Liberation Army further integrate in the hemisphere.

The High-Stakes Economic Strategy

Trump's national security and economic advisors believe the U.S. can mortgage its deep interconnection with LAC nations to negotiate partnerships more friendly to U.S. interests. They may be correct. Stephen Miran, whom Trump tapped to lead the Council of Economic Advisors, a White House think tank, will be a main architect behind the administration's efforts to restructure global trade. He published a white paper in 2024 arguing the U.S. should use high tariffs as leverage against nations he believes have exploited U.S. largesse. He acknowledges this strategy will create extreme market volatility and hurt American exporters but says other nations will act against their own interests to maintain access to the U.S. economy.

A Potential Backfire: Global Realignment Risk

However, he also admits openly his strategy has only a "narrow path" of success and risks surrendering essential partnerships away from the United States. Mr. Miran knows that, if the U.S. acts too boldly, allied nations will respond to the incentives the U.S. telegraphs and seek more meaningful partnership elsewhere. China sees itself as a natural replacement to the U.S. and openly courts these nations. It has spent decades making a case for itself to lead the world - its investments in and cooperation with countries historically close to the United States nearly rival the U.S.'s own commitments.

In pursuit of more reliable partners, Western nations could build a new global framework that excludes both China and the United States. The U.S. is the world's largest economy, but more economic output occurs outside the U.S. than in it. Already, countries are putting aside old trade disputes to prepare for Trumpian tariffs. The United States seems confident it sits at the center of global trade and can use this centrality to control other nations' behavior. If it overplays its hand, the U.S. may instead find itself on the outside looking in.

^{Publications of Parts 2 and 3 to come in February publications.}

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