The BLUF - January 6th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Syria-Israel Peace Talks Resume In Paris

• South Korea & China Pledge To Enhance Ties During Summit In Beijing

• Maduro Pleads Not Guilty On Federal Charges In NYC

Syria-Israel Peace Talks Resume In Paris

_{By: Atlas}

Officials from Syria and Israel resumed U.S.-mediated negotiations in Paris on Monday, marking the first high-level talks between the two countries in nearly two months as Damascus seeks the withdrawal of Israeli forces from territory seized after the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

Syria's state news agency SANA reported that the Syrian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and intelligence chief Hussein al-Salama. The discussions are the fifth round in an ongoing diplomatic track and represent a renewed push by Damascus to reclaim what it describes as non-negotiable national rights.

A French diplomat confirmed to the Associated Press that the Syria-Israel talks would take place in Paris, with the United States mediating. France's foreign minister was also meeting Monday evening with his Syrian counterpart.

The resumption of talks came at the direct request of President Donald Trump during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago last week, according to Axios, which first reported the planned Paris session.

Core issues and demands

Syria is seeking the reactivation of a 1974 disengagement agreement that established a U.N.-monitored buffer zone between Israel and Syria after the 1973 Middle East war.

A Syrian government source told SANA that Damascus is demanding "the withdrawal of Israeli forces to the lines prior to Dec. 8, 2024, within the framework of a reciprocal security agreement that prioritizes full Syrian sovereignty and guarantees the prevention of any form of interference in the country's internal affairs."

Israeli troops advanced deeper across the border after Assad was toppled on December 8, 2024, by rebel fighters who assumed Syria's leadership. Israel declared the 1974 disengagement agreement void following Assad's flight, saying the accord no longer applies.

Israel has said its presence is temporary to clear out pro-Assad remnants and militants in order to protect Israel from attacks. But it has given no indication its forces would leave anytime soon.

A Syrian official told Reuters last month that talks had been stalled since October, but that Syria expected a possible shift following the December 29 meeting between Trump and Netanyahu.

"We're not going to legitimize an Israeli presence in Syria or the Golan Heights for that matter," the official said.

Israeli proposals and negotiating positions

Axios reported that Israel has proposed establishing buffer security zones southwest of Damascus and imposing a no-fly zone on Syrian aircraft near the border, in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from most territory it recently entered.

The report said Israel would retain what it described as a strategic presence in specific locations, including Mount Hermon.

Israel is also pressing Damascus to prevent a Turkish military buildup in Syria. Israeli officials argue that allowing Turkey to deploy aircraft or radar systems in Syria would effectively turn the country into a forward base for Ankara and create a major security challenge.

Another Israeli demand involves secure passage from the border to the Druze Mountain region, as part of guarantees for the safety of the Druze community. Such a corridor would extend roughly 100 kilometers into Syrian territory, a condition Syria is unlikely to accept, according to Ynet.

Netanyahu said after his meeting with Trump that it is in Israel's interest to have a peaceful border with Syria.

"We want to make sure the border next to us is secure, without terrorists, and to guarantee the safety of Druze and Christians there and across the Middle East," Netanyahu said.

New Israeli delegation

Ahead of the Paris meeting, Netanyahu appointed a new negotiating team after the resignation of Israel's previous top negotiator, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.

The Israeli delegation includes Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter, Netanyahu's military adviser General Roman Gofman, who has been nominated to lead the Mossad spy agency, and acting National Security Council head Gil Reich.

Netanyahu decided there would be no single head of delegation, with Gofman handling security issues, Leiter overseeing ties with the United States and Reich responsible for diplomatic coordination, according to Ynet.

U.S. envoy Tom Barrack is mediating the talks. A spokesperson for Barrack declined to comment.

Analysts skeptical of breakthrough

Not all experts are optimistic about the prospects for a deal.

Eyal Zisser, a professor and specialist on Syria and Lebanon, said that while dialogue is preferable to escalation, he doubts Israel currently has a clear policy or genuine desire to reach an agreement.

"There are too many contradictory voices," Zisser said, pointing to calls within Israel to eliminate al-Sharaa, proposals to dismantle Syria and grant autonomy to minorities, and a security establishment that believes continued military presence and strikes are the only way to ensure calm.

Zisser said the gaps remain deep, particularly over Israeli withdrawal, the status of the Druze community and the demand to demilitarize southern Syria.

"If the talks reach a dead end, the United States may try to bridge the gaps," he said. "But at this stage, it appears the sides are talking largely because Washington wants them to. It may well continue without producing results."

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, told Al Jazeera the talks represent "a message to deter closer ties" while both sides assess their positions.

Syrian officials, including al-Sharaa and al-Shibani, have repeatedly voiced frustration over Israeli strikes and its presence inside Syria. Speaking at the Doha Forum in early December, al-Sharaa accused Israel of exporting its crises abroad to deflect from the war in Gaza.

He claimed Syria had been subjected to more than 1,000 airstrikes and 400 incursions since its "liberation," and said Damascus was working with influential countries to pressure Israel to withdraw from territory it entered after December 8, 2024.

Over the past year, Israel has launched more than 600 air, drone and artillery attacks across Syria, averaging nearly two attacks a day, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.

Trump said after his meeting with Netanyahu that he was confident the Israeli prime minister and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa could reach an understanding.

"We do have an understanding regarding Syria. I'm sure that Israel and al-Sharaa will get along. I will try and make it so that they do get along, I think they will," Trump said.

Syria does not formally recognize Israel and has no interest in joining Trump's Abraham Accords, under which several Arab nations have normalized relations with Israel. Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights is recognized by Washington but rejected by the vast majority of the international community.

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