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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• The South Korean Political Climate Gets Hotter

• Afghanistan And Pakistan Are Coming Closer To A Hot War

• The Last Hospital In A Sudan Territory Receives Many Shells, Few Supplies

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South Korean Political Crisis Brings More Standoffs

_{By Ian Hines, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

Since the impeachment of Acting President Han Duck-soo last week in South Korea, the nation has continued to spiral further into a political crisis. An arrest warrant was issued for President Yoon Suk Yeol on December 31st, but authorities have faced resistance in their attempts to bring in the currently impeached President.

In a historic first for the nation, around 100 law enforcement officials entered the residence of President Yoon, with the intention of carrying out the arrest warrant. What they encountered was an even larger gathering of Presidential Security Service (PSS) and special operations soldiers who refused to let them enter. Around 200 uniformed personnel gathered to protect the embattled President, causing scuffles to break out at the entrance of his compound. Facing resistance, the country’s Corruption Investigational Office (CIO) called off their attempts to arrest Yoon for the time being.

Yoon Supporters Rally Outside

President Yoon has repeatedly stated his intentions to win the Constitutional Court trial and return to the Presidency. As it turns out, so do some South Koreans. Crowds of supporters joined the PSS in forming human barricades at the entrance of the Presidential Palace, as well as placing a bus on the road heading into the compound. Even amidst freezing cold and snow in the first few days of January, thousands of Yoon’s supporters camped out on the roads nearby, waving signs using “stop the steal” rhetoric borrowed from the United States. On New Years Day, Yoon released a statement thanking his supporters for their defiance and railing against “anti-state forces” trying to arrest him, stating:

“Due to internal and external forces infringing on our sovereignty and the activities of anti-state groups, South Korea is now in danger. With you all, I will fight to the end to protect this country.”

Warrant Expiring And Further Crises

The CIO has announced it intends to press charges against the leader of the Presidential Security Service for refusing to comply with court orders, but has admitted that little can be done so long as the PSS remains loyal to Yoon and continues to defend the compound. The arrest warrant is set to expire on January 6th, leaving an air of uncertainty as the standoff shows no signs of ending.

Despite the shows of support for the President, a majority of South Koreans support his arrest and removal. Opinion polling from South Korean agency Gongjung shows his approval at only 34.3%. Counter-protesters gathered across the street from the pro-Yoon crowd, chanting for his arrest and removal as President.

Over the change from 2024 to 2025, the Republic of Korea has seen repeated crises. A Jeju Air flight crashed at the Muan International Airport, killing 179, as well as the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions announcing an indefinite nationwide strike that has continued over a month. The Finance Ministry has downgraded growth projections for a second time, falling to a forecast of merely 1.8% growth in 2025.

Pakistan, Afghanistan, And The Brink Of War

_{By Ian Hines, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

As much of the world was celebrating Christmas day, the Pakistan Air Force carried out airstrikes within the territory of neighboring Afghanistan, claiming retaliation for an attack carried out by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban or TTP. December 21st saw a TTP ambush on a Pakistani outpost kill 16 soldiers in the border region of North Waziristan.

The airstrikes took place only four days later on December 25th, pounding what Pakistan claimed was suspected TTP camps in Western Afghanistan. Pakistani officials claimed to have targeted camps used by high ranking TTP officials, a suicide bomber training camp and a recruitment camp. They also reportedly struck “Umar Media”, the heart of the TTP’s online propaganda campaigns.

Immediately following this, condemnations from the Taliban regime in Kabul followed. The Afghan government claimed that 47 people had been killed in the strikes, including civilians. The Taliban called the airstrikes blatant violations of their sovereignty, and set out in seeking retribution.

Afghan Security Forces attacked border positions with mortar fire and rockets, forcing Pakistani troops to retreat in several places. Videos released by Pakistan on December 29th reportedly show their forces retaking captured positions along the border. The Taliban claimed to have destroyed several Pakistani positions with heavy artillery, and threatened more attacks if Pakistan attempted to return fire.

December 30th saw the largest escalation in tensions, as Afghanistan claimed to have deployed 15,000 troops in battalion level units to the border region. Videos online show heavy equipment such as former Soviet T-62s as well as captured American Humvee vehicles being sent to the frontlines.

Three Years of Tensions

Since the fall of the US-backed Afghan government in 2021, relations between Islamabad and Kabul have gone back and forth. During their years as an insurgency, Pakistan covertly supported the Taliban with material and equipment. During the premiership of Imran Khan, Pakistan moved to push the world to engage with the new Taliban government to incentivize them on human rights.

However, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has taken a more hardline stance, accusing the new Afghanistan of harboring TTP militants, as well as deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghans following a border skirmish in 2023.

The Taliban find themselves in a difficult bind, as cracking down on the TTP and engaging with the Pakistani government would allow them a lifeline to make contact with the international community. However, kowtowing to the demands of an outside power and cracking down on a friendly militant group may drive jihadist fighters towards the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the largest anti-Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

On The Brink

Skirmishes between the two sides have continued into the new year, with rocket and artillery fire being exchanged on the border on a daily basis. Afghan officials have stated villages near the border have been evacuated due to the threat of Pakistani missile strikes. The first day of the year saw claims of a 400 man force of insurgents from Afghanistan crossing the border and raising the white flag of the Islamic Emirate.

Ironically, the dramatic escalations since December 25th took place at a time when Pakistani Ambassador Mohammed Sadiq was in Kabul, meeting with Afghan officials in regards to cross border security and normalizing relations. This seems to have fallen by the wayside, as Afghan officials repeatedly made bellicose statements, such as one from the Afghan Defense Ministry:

“We don’t care if they have a nuclear bomb – we have faith and know that God is with us”

Russia was the first outside nation to comment, with Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Kakharova stating a need for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to show restraint, as well as signaling Russia’s alarm at the crisis in Central Asia.

During the first few days of January, tensions have remained high between the two nations, with neither side showing any intention of backing down. Civilians from the border areas have stated their fears for all-out war, and reportedly began leaving the region until the situation subsides.

The Last Hospital In Sudan Territory Shelled Into Non-Functioning Status

_{By Bianca Bridger, Staff Writer For Atlas}

The last functioning hospital in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, has been rendered inoperable following repeated shelling by the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to doctors who spoke with the Sudan Tribune, the hospital can no longer accept patients due to significant damage caused by artillery and drone strikes. Key departments, including the maternity and children's wards, operating theatres, and the pharmacy, were heavily affected.

As a result, patients, including those injured in previous attacks, have been forced to travel to other areas such as the Zamzam IDP camp and Tawila.

The Sudanese Health Ministry has accused the RSF of deliberately targeting health facilities in El Fasher, which it described as a violation of international law and humanitarian norms. The Ministry also stated that it would continue efforts to provide health services to residents and commended the medical staff for their resilience.

This attack on the hospital comes amid the ongoing civil war between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which began in April 2023. Since the conflict erupted, more than 20,000 people have been killed, and over 14 million people have been displaced. An estimated 25 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, including food, shelter, and healthcare.

In a separate incident on December 25, at least 10 militants affiliated with the Sudanese army were killed, and several others were wounded in an RSF drone attack on the Al-Maakil training camp.

The destruction of the hospital in El Fasher is part of a broader pattern of infrastructure damage affecting civilians and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. As the war continues, the provision of essential services such as healthcare remains severely impacted in conflict zones.

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