The BLUF - July 14th

Good morning everyone,

This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Trump Re-Ups Attacks Against Iran, Vows To Hit Hard

• E.U. Promotes $1 Billion Dollar Fund For Gaza Recovery

• Houthi’s Launch Attack Against Saudi Arabian Airport

Trump Re-Ups Attacks Against Iran, Vows To Hit Hard

_{By: Atlas}

American aircraft, warships, and drones hit Iran for a third consecutive night Monday, striking six coastal areas in a five-hour operation, while President Trump reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports and announced the United States would begin charging a 20 percent fee on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran answered by firing cruise missiles at two Emirati oil tankers, killing an Indian crewman, and by launching missiles and drones at Bahrain.

The interim deal signed in mid-June is, by both sides' accounting, in pieces. Iran's Foreign Ministry called the memorandum of understanding "in a crisis stage." Trump, asked what happened, said the agreement had been "built to test" Tehran and that "they didn't honor the test."

The Strikes

Central Command said the operation began at 4:45 p.m. Eastern at Trump's direction and ran until roughly 10:15 p.m. Forces struck military targets in Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas, using precision munitions against coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites, and what it called maritime capabilities. The aim, the command said, was to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping.

Iranian outlets reported explosions on Kish, Qeshm, and Abu Musa islands, around Bandar Abbas, in the city of Jam in Bushehr province, and in Khuzestan, where a provincial official said two people were killed and three wounded near Abadan. Iran acknowledged the strikes but gave no overall casualty figures.

The night before, American forces had used one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time, sending three Corsair unmanned surface vessels into Bandar Abbas Naval Base to destroy a submarine and ship maintenance facility. Central Command released black-and-white video of a small craft closing on a raised dock and detonating.

Trump spoke to reporters in the Oval Office moments after the strikes began. "We're hitting them very heavy tonight," he said. "We have tremendous amounts of ammunition. We have numbers that we haven't had in years... We're knocking out all of their offensive capability, and we're controlling the straits." He said the United States would "take out" Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried site near Natanz that analysts believe may be tied to Iran's nuclear program. "Tell the Iranians to be ready. Let them know we're coming, okay? There's not a damn thing they can do about it."

Iran's Answer

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it hit and disabled two "offending supertankers" that had ignored warnings, switched off their navigation systems, and tried to pass through what it called a mined route. The United Arab Emirates identified the ships as the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, struck by two cruise missiles in Omani territorial waters, in the southern lane. One Indian crewman was killed and eight wounded, six of them Indian and two Ukrainian. Fires broke out on both vessels and were later put out.

The Emirati Defense Ministry called it "a serious violation and a clear breach of international law" and said the country "reserves its full right to respond." Fighter jets were audible over Dubai on Tuesday morning. The U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi and consulate in Dubai canceled consular appointments through Wednesday.

Bahrain sounded its missile sirens twice overnight. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it targeted weapons warehouses, a satellite communications center, and a residential building for American forces at the Juffair base, home to the Navy's Fifth Fleet. Bahrain said its air defenses intercepted the attacks and accused Iran of targeting civilians. Over the weekend and into Monday, Iranian missiles also flew at Jordan, Kuwait, and Oman. Jordan said it shot down four. Qatar condemned the strikes on its neighbors.

Blockade, Tolls, and a Reversal

The blockade is the sharpest reversal. Washington had lifted it in mid-April as part of the deal that ended the first phase of the war. On Monday, Trump put it back.

"We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving," he wrote on Truth Social. "All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait." Central Command said enforcement resumes Tuesday.

Then came the toll. Trump said the United States would henceforth be "the Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and be "reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped." He told Fox News the country had "guarded it for nothing" for half a century and that "now we're going to get paid for guarding it, a lot of money." Later, on Newsmax: "They can make trouble, they can do things that are not nice, but we control it."

That upends a policy the U.S. Navy has held since the Barbary Wars. The International Maritime Organization said flatly there is "no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait," and its council reaffirmed that passage should remain free of charges.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, seized on the contradiction. "POTUS is absolutely right," he wrote. "Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service." Then: "Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair."

What's Actually Being Fought Over

The dispute is a map. Iran insists ships use a northern route hugging its coast and register with its Persian Gulf Strait Authority. The United States and the IMO have pushed a southern corridor along Oman. Iran has attacked vessels using it, and says the U.S. is violating the June 17 memorandum by pushing them there. On Sunday, Iran's Strait Authority declared the waterway closed until "stability and calm are restored." Washington and the Pentagon said Iran does not control it.

Traffic tells its own story. Kpler counted 14 transits Sunday, the lowest since June 13, half of them Iran-flagged. Only two non-Iranian vessels crossed with transponders on.

Iranian officials blame Washington for the collapse of Saturday's talks in Oman, which spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei attributed to "overt and covert" American pressure. "Lying has become part of the U.S. administration's behavioral pattern," he said. Iran also refused an IAEA request to resume nuclear inspections. Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman are still working; Baqaei said Tehran would use diplomacy and military means as circumstances dictate.

Trump formally notified Congress on July 10 that hostilities resumed July 7, a filing that opens a fresh 60-day window under the War Powers Resolution, though both chambers passed a resolution last month seeking to limit him. Brent crude jumped 9.6 percent Monday, its largest daily gain since May 2020, and reached a one-month high above $84 on Tuesday. Gasoline in the United States averaged $3.87 a gallon, up from roughly $3 when the war began February 28.

Trump has scheduled a prime-time address to the nation for Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern.

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