The BLUF - March 10th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Trump: Decision To End Iran War Will Be Mutual With Israel

• Venezuelan Lawmakers Advance Mining Reform Bill Favorable To The U.S.

• Analysis: Questions Arise Around Iranian School Being Possibly Bombed By U.S. Forces

Trump: Decision To End Iran War Will Be Mutual With Israel

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump said Sunday that any decision to end the war with Iran would be a "mutual" one made jointly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while making clear the United States would retain final say over when the military campaign concludes. The comments came as operations against Iran entered their tenth day, the death toll continued to climb on multiple fronts, and Iran's Assembly of Experts named a new supreme leader in open defiance of Trump's stated preferences.

In a brief phone interview, Trump told The Times of Israel that while Netanyahu would have input, the U.S. president would set the terms and timing. "I think it's mutual… a little bit. We've been talking. I'll make a decision at the right time, but everything's going to be taken into account," Trump said. Asked whether Israel could continue its own military campaign against Iran after the United States decides to halt its strikes, Trump declined to engage the hypothetical, adding only: "I don't think it's going to be necessary."

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had said Friday that the administration expected military operations to last four to six weeks. Trump himself has avoided committing to a fixed timeline.

The Question of Surrender

In a separate interview that aired Sunday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth addressed Trump's earlier demand for Iran's "unconditional surrender," saying the United States would fight until Iran was incapable of continuing. "It means we're fightin' to win. It means we set the terms. We'll know when they're not capable of fighting. There'll be a point where they'll have no choice but to do that," Hegseth said, adding that Trump would set the terms of any end to hostilities regardless of the form they took.

Trump himself, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, struck a similar tone when asked about negotiations. "At some point, I don't think there will be anybody left, maybe to say 'we surrender,'" he said. The president also asserted that once U.S. military operations were complete, Iran would be left without meaningful offensive capacity against the United States, Israel, or American allies for the foreseeable future.

In his Times of Israel interview, Trump also offered a broader justification for the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign, saying Iran had been on a path to destroy Israel before the operation began. "Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it… We've worked together. We've destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel. Would have destroyed Israel if I wasn't around," he said. He added separately that he believed Netanyahu's role had been equally indispensable, stating: "And if Bibi wasn't around, Israel would not exist today."

Iran's Response and the New Supreme Leader

The backdrop to Trump's comments was the announcement earlier Sunday that Iran's 88-member Assembly of Experts had named Mojtaba Khamenei — the 56-year-old son of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — as the country's third supreme leader. The assembly acted despite Trump having said publicly that Mojtaba was "unacceptable" to him, and despite the Israeli military having warned before the announcement that it would target any successor.

In the assembly's statement, one council member cited Trump's prior objections as a factor in the choice, noting: "Even the Great Satan has mentioned his name." Trump responded to Mojtaba's selection by saying on Monday he was "disappointed" and believed the appointment would lead to "more of the same problem" for Iran. When asked whether the new leader had a target on his back, Trump said it would be "inappropriate" to say whether or not he does.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards quickly pledged allegiance to the new leader and issued a direct counterstatement to Trump's comments that the war would "end soon." "It is we who will determine the end of the war," the Guards said in a statement. "The equations and future status of the region are now in the hands of our armed forces; American forces will not end the war."

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also rejected Trump's claim that the United States would play any role in selecting or approving Tehran's leadership. "We allow nobody to interfere in our domestic affairs," Araghchi said in a Sunday television interview. "This is up to the Iranian people to elect their new leader." On the question of a ceasefire, Araghchi said Iran would not consider such a step until the United States explained its justification for launching the war.

Oil Markets and the Economic Toll

The Iran war entered its second week with significant disruption to global energy markets. Brent crude futures briefly touched $119.50 a barrel on Monday — the highest since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine — before retreating. West Texas Intermediate surged as much as 22 percent in early trading on March 8 before settling back. The benchmark WTI contract had already climbed 12 percent on March 6 and was up 36 percent over the prior week.

The national average gasoline price in the United States rose to $3.45 by March 8, a jump of nearly 16 percent from the day the war began on February 28, as the conflict curtailed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that handles an estimated 20 percent of global oil flows. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on Trump to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, calling the price increases a result of what he described as a "reckless war of choice."

Trump dismissed those concerns. In a Truth Social post, he wrote that rising oil prices were "a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace." He added that prices would "drop rapidly" once the Iran nuclear threat had been eliminated. Energy Secretary Chris Wright offered a more measured take on the same day, telling CNN that elevated prices and disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping were "a weeks, not months thing" in a worst-case scenario.

U.S. Casualties and Evacuations

The human costs of the conflict continued to accumulate. As of Sunday, seven American service members had been killed since the war began — the seventh dying from injuries sustained during an Iranian drone and missile attack on U.S. forces stationed in Saudi Arabia on March 1. The State Department on March 8 ordered all nonessential personnel and family members of U.S. government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, citing the ongoing threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks and significant disruptions to commercial aviation.

More than 32,000 American citizens had been evacuated from the broader Middle East and returned to the United States since the war began, the State Department said, with over 19,000 receiving direct U.S. government assistance. More than half of those who requested help chose alternative departure methods over U.S. government-provided transportation.

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