The BLUF - March 11th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Alleged Abbey Gate Bombing Mastermind Captured

• Analysis: How Oil Tankers Could be Damaging Undersea Cable Lines in the Baltic

• Romanian Protests Flame Higher Over Leading Presidential Candidate Disqualified

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Alleged Abbey Gate Bombing Mastermind Captured

_{By: Maxwell Ingalls, Residing Fellow at Atlas}

On Tuesday, March 4^th , President Trump gave his first address to congress. In the highly contentious address, the President announced that the alleged mastermind behind the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing which left 13 US service members and over 170 Afghani civilians dead had been captured. The bombing took place during the disorderly and catastrophic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August of 2021 after the Doha Agreement was signed between the US government and the Taliban, bringing an end to the conflict. During the withdrawal of US assets, thousands of Afghan civilians and former Afghan army and police forces swelled outside of the gates of Kabul International Airport, attempting to board planes out of Afghanistan heading for the United States. It is believed that at least seven civilians attempted to hang on to a departing US Air Force aircraft but fell as the plane took off from Kabul international airport, which was seen throughout the world. To stop civilians from reaching the tarmac US and NATO forces fired warning shots into the air which caused further panic outside of the gates. Because of the disorganization and sheer number of civilians gathered outside of Kabul International Airport the withdrawal provided the perfect opportunity for a terror attack that would result in mass devastation with relatively little sophistication, something both the United States and NATO warned of.

ISIS-K and Mohammad “Jafar” Sharifullah

One day after the bombing ISIS-K released a statement claiming responsibility for the attack and also identified the suicide bomber as Abdul Rahman al-Logari. According to reports all-Logari was released from Parwan prison, an Afghani government-controlled prison located in Bagram airbase, just 11 days prior to the bombing which took place on August 26^th . Due to the prison’s takeover by the Taliban during their rapid advance toward Kabul. Along with al-Logari, several hundred Taliban and ISIS-K prisoners were also released. ISIS-K, also referred to as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, is an ISIS offshoot based in Afghanistan and Pakistan. ISIS-K was established in 2015 and has fighters from throughout Central Asia and the Caucasus’ and is mainly present in the northeast of the country collecting funding by taxing the local populace. ISIS-K has been responsible for several terror attacks against Shia religious sites and mosques in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. Although both the Taliban and ISIS-K are jihadist and believe in Sharia law, they differ in their vision for the Islamic world. Unlike ISIS, which wants to create a singular Islamic state and are therefore focused on an international scale, the Taliban are more focused on consolidating power in just Afghanistan. Because of this and other fundamental ideological differences, the Taliban and ISIS-K have competed for control of Afghanistan while also fighting the US-led coalition.

In 2023, the Taliban killed the main planner of the Abbey Gate bombing, which was later confirmed by US officials, although the planners name was not released. It is also unknown whether it was due to one of the frequent clashes between ISIS-K and the Taliban, or whether the Taliban had conducted a targeted operation against the militant. One of the other alleged masterminds behind the bombing has been identified as Mohammad “Jafar” Sharifullah. Sharifullah was captured in Pakistan in a joint operation conducted by the CIA and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) before being transferred to Washington D.C. on March 4^th to face trial. The CIA director, John Ratcliffe, claimed in a Fox News interview that he told Pakistani authorities this was a necessary measure if Pakistan wanted to have a good relationship with the Trump administration. During his interrogation with the FBI, Sharifullah waived his Miranda rights and not only admitted to being a part of the Abbey Gate bombing but also being involved in the 2016 Canadian embassy bombing in Kabul and the 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Russia. 10 guards were killed in the bombing of the Canadian embassy along with several civilians, Sharifullah claimed to have conducted surveillance on the embassy as well as driving the ISIS-K suicide bomber to the embassy on the day of the bombing. Sharifullah also admitted to having trained ISIS-K operatives in the use of Kalashnikov rifles who would then go on to kill more than 130 people attending a concert in Crocus City Hall near Moscow. Sharifullah faces life imprisonment in the United States on the charge of “providing and conspiring to provide material support and resources to a designated foreign terrorist organization, resulting in death.”

Moving Forward

The capture of Mohammad Sharifullah is a major victory for not only the United States, but every country affected by ISIS - particularly those in Central Asia and Europe as he is a seasoned ISIS-K fighter who has demonstrated his ability to export terror attacks aboard. Another aspect of the capture of Sharifullah is the pressure put on Pakistan’s ISI by the Trump administration and the CIA as the ISI has long been accused of aiding the US in targeting the Taliban and other jihadists while also aiding them by funding, training, and providing weapons to the movement. Since the arrest Pakistan and the ISI are beginning to fall in line with US national security interests as the Trump administration has a strong relationship with Pakistan’s largest rival, India and its Hindu nationalist president Narendra Modi. Due to Sharfiullah’s admission to being involved in the Crocus City Hall attack, his capture could also be used by the Trump administration as a gesture of good will toward Russia as Trump wishes to end the conflict as quickly as possible by brining Putin to the negotiating table. Especially because Russia has a long history of ISIS cells operating in the country, particularly in the south of the country in Dagestan, where a 4-man ISIS cell was killed by Russian security forces just days ago.

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