The BLUF - March 17th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Nationwide Blackout Hits Cuba

• Appeal Trial Begins For Former French President

• Afghanistan Reports 400 Dead In Pakistan Strike On Kabul

Nationwide Blackout Hits Cuba

_{By: Atlas}

Cuba's national electric grid went dark Monday in a complete island-wide blackout, leaving approximately 10 million people without power as the country's energy crisis reaches a breaking point. It was the third major blackout in four months — and the most severe sign yet that decades of infrastructure neglect, compounded by a U.S.-imposed oil blockade, are pushing Cuba's power system past the point of manageable failure.

Cuba's Ministry of Energy and Mines posted on X that a "complete disconnection" of the national electrical system had occurred and said it was investigating the cause. Officials noted there were no failures in the units that were operating at the time the grid collapsed, pointing to a transmission problem rather than a generation failure. The ministry later said it had begun restoring power to small clusters of circuits — known as microsystems — across the country, describing it as a necessary early step toward bringing the full grid back online.

Cuban state television separately attributed the collapse to an "unfortunate shutdown" of the Antonio Guiteras power plant, the island's largest generator. A March 4 failure at the same plant triggered a blackout that knocked out power across western Cuba for more than 16 hours.

Three Months Without Oil

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed Friday that the island had not received any oil shipments in more than three months and was operating on solar power, natural gas, and thermoelectric plants. The government, he said, had been forced to postpone surgeries for tens of thousands of patients.

Ship-tracking data reviewed by Reuters showed Cuba received only two small vessels carrying oil imports this year. The first discharged fuel in January at the Port of Havana, arriving from Mexico, which had been a regular supplier. The second, from Jamaica, delivered liquefied petroleum gas — commonly used for cooking — in February. No large imports have entered through Cuba's main hubs of Matanzas or Moa, which typically handle crude oil for refining and fuel oil for power generation. The ports of Havana and Cienfuegos had no import activity in more than a month, according to satellite imagery analyzed by “TankerTrackers.com.”

Venezuela, once Cuba's primary oil supplier and responsible for as much as half of its fuel imports, has sent nothing to the island this year. Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA last month loaded gasoline onto a tanker previously used for Cuba shipments, but the vessel had not left Venezuelan waters as of Monday.

The cutoff traces directly to January, when U.S. forces captured then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The interim government of Delcy Rodríguez, which moved quickly to align with Washington's demands, agreed to halt oil shipments to Cuba as part of its cooperation with the Trump administration. Trump also signed an executive order threatening tariffs on any country that sells or provides oil to Cuba, which effectively deterred other potential suppliers — including Mexico — from continuing shipments.

A Grid Long Past Its Limits

Cuba's power infrastructure problems did not start with the oil blockade, though the cutoff accelerated a deterioration that was already well underway. William LeoGrande, a professor at American University who has studied Cuba for decades, said the country's energy grid has not been properly maintained and that its infrastructure is "way past its normal useful life."

"The technicians working on the grid are magicians to keep it running at all given the shape that it's in," LeoGrande said.

He added that thermoelectric plants have been burning heavy oil whose high sulfur content is corroding the equipment from within. The government also lacks the hard currency needed to import spare parts or upgrade its generating capacity. "It's just a perfect storm of collapse," LeoGrande said.

Cuba produces roughly 40 percent of its own petroleum but has been unable to generate enough power to meet demand. Unlike most of the rest of the Western Hemisphere, the island has no connection to international energy grids that could provide backup supply.

The U.S. Embassy in Cuba posted on X Monday that there was "no information on when power would be restored," and advised Americans on the island to conserve fuel, water, food, and mobile phone charge, and to prepare for "significant disruption."

Protests and Political Pressure

The blackouts have begun producing what the Cuban government has long worked to prevent: public unrest. Over the weekend, protesters in Morón torched the local Communist Party office in what was described as a rare violent demonstration. Authorities arrested at least five people. Videos circulated on social media showing residents in Havana and other cities banging pots and pans — a traditional form of public protest known as a cacerolazo — to express anger over the outages, food shortages, and deteriorating living conditions. Similar protests erupted in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

Havana resident Tomás David Velázquez Felipe, 61, said the relentless outages make him feel that Cubans who can leave should do so. "What little we have to eat spoils," he said. "Our people are too old to keep suffering."

LeoGrande outlined the stakes plainly: if Cuba drastically reduces consumption and expands renewables, it can manage for a period. "But it would be constant misery for the general population, and eventually, the economy could collapse just completely and then you would have social chaos and probably mass migration," he said.

Talks With Washington and Trump's Comments

Díaz-Canel confirmed Friday that Cuba had entered into talks with the U.S. government, describing them as aimed at finding solutions "through dialogue to the bilateral differences between the two nations." The Trump administration has previously said it does not seek to trigger a collapse of the Cuban government outright, but rather wants to negotiate a transition away from the country's communist political system, including the release of political prisoners and movement toward economic liberalization.

Trump addressed Cuba directly in remarks at the White House Monday, stating he believed he would have "the honor of taking Cuba." He added: "Whether I free it, take it. I could do anything I want with it. They're a very weakened nation right now." He described Cuba as a "failed nation" with "no money" and "no oil," while also noting it had "nice land" and a "beautiful island."

Trump told reporters Sunday on Air Force One that Cuba "wants to make a deal," and suggested the situation would be addressed once the Iran war concludes. "I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we have to do," he said.

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