The BLUF - May 27th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Germany To Ukraine: No More Range Limits

• Venezuelan Ruling Party Claims Election Win

• U.S. Brings Spying Charges on Fed Economist

Germany To Ukraine: No More Range Limits

_{By: Atlas}

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed on 26 May that Germany and its principal allies “are no longer imposing any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine,” allowing Kyiv to strike military targets inside Russia with Western-supplied systems. The statement marks a sharp policy shift from the Scholz government’s reluctance to authorize deep-strike capabilities and aligns Berlin with earlier—but quieter—moves by Washington, London, and Paris to ease usage rules on ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP missiles.

Details of Merz’s Announcement

Speaking at a WDR-hosted Europa Forum in Berlin, Merz said: “There are absolutely no range limits anymore—not from Britain, the French, or from us, and not from the Americans. That means Ukraine can defend itself by attacking military positions also in Russia.” He added that Western nations had “exhausted all available diplomatic means” over the preceding three weeks and must now increase pressure on Moscow after Russia’s record three-night drone and missile onslaught that killed at least a dozen Ukrainian civilians.

Merz did not clarify whether Berlin would send its 500-kilometer-range Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles, a system his predecessor Olaf Scholz refused to release. The new government has adopted “strategic ambiguity,” declining to publish detailed arms-transfer lists.

Allied Positions and Prior Steps

• United States: In late 2024 President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to fire ATACMS into Russian border regions.

• United Kingdom: London quietly permitted Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory the same month.

• France: Paris signaled SCALP missiles could be used against “military hubs” inside Russia.

Merz’s declaration formalizes what had become an informal consensus among Kyiv’s top suppliers, ending months of mixed signals and piecemeal permissions.

Kremlin Reaction

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the decision “quite dangerous” and said it contradicted efforts toward a negotiated settlement. Moscow has repeatedly warned that enabling deep strikes could prompt retaliation against NATO states; Putin last year threatened to treat sponsoring countries as “viable targets” if their weapons hit Russian territory.

Military Significance for Ukraine

Ukraine already fields ATACMS (range 300 km), Storm Shadow/SCALP (up to 560 km), and domestically produced drones capable of reaching central Russia. The removal of donor-imposed geographical red lines means Kyiv can:

1. Attack staging hubs in Russia’s Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts used to launch drone swarms.

2. Disrupt logistics by striking fuel depots and rail nodes beyond occupied Ukrainian soil.

3. Counter long-range artillery by hitting S-300/S-400 batteries and Iskander launch sites otherwise outside HIMARS reach.

Ukrainian officials argue such strikes are essential after Russia launched 600 drones and multiple cruise missiles over three nights, calling U.S. and EU responses “muted.”

Domestic Politics in Berlin

Merz assumed office three weeks earlier after campaigning on a tougher Russia line. He has floated defense spending up to 5 percent of GDP and advocates faster arms deliveries. Opposition Greens back the range-limit lift; the far-right AfD warns it risks escalation. Within Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc, hawks welcome the move, but Taurus approval remains contentious due to potential German personnel involvement for targeting.

Alliance Coordination and Risks

Merz claimed his statement reflects consensus among the U.S., U.K., and France, but none had publicly confirmed a blanket removal. The ambiguity allows flexibility yet risks allied friction if interpretations differ. Operationally, extended-range usage raises:

• Escalation risk—Russia could target weapons suppliers or escalate cyber/space operations.

• Stockpile pressure—Western inventories of long-range missiles are limited; replenishment timelines exceed one year.

• Targeting support—Ukraine may require real-time Western intelligence, reviving debates over “co-belligerent” thresholds.

Impact on Cease-Fire Prospects

Merz’s move coincides with U.S. efforts to broker direct Putin–Zelensky talks in a neutral venue such as the Vatican. While Washington hopes stronger Ukrainian leverage forces Moscow to negotiate, Moscow frames the decision as proof the West prefers escalation. Analysts at Germany’s IFW Kiel say range-limit removal might bolster Ukraine’s bargaining position but also harden Putin’s demands.

Next Deliverables: Taurus Debate

During his opposition tenure Merz urged Taurus deliveries; allies now watch whether Berlin will follow through. Taurus’s 500 km reach could strike the Kerch Bridge or Black Sea Fleet facilities. German officials earlier cited fears of implicating Bundeswehr personnel in mission-planning, a red line unchanged for now. Strategic ambiguity allows Taurus to be shipped quietly, but Bundestag committees could force public disclosure.

Upcoming Engagements

• Zelensky Visit to Berlin (May 28): Expected to discuss specific “long-range fire” packages and possible Taurus approval.

• NATO Defense Ministers’ Meeting (June 14): Likely to formalize alliance guidance on range usage and stockpile backfill.

• EU Foreign Affairs Council (June 17): Will assess legal frameworks for using European Peace Facility funds to procure additional long-range munitions.

Outlook

The German-led decision removes a major policy brake on Ukrainian deep-strike operations, but practical outcomes hinge on munition quantities and targeting data. If Kyiv uses new latitude to degrade Russian logistics without causing mass civilian casualties, allied unity may hold. Significant civilian impact inside Russia could test public support in Berlin, Paris, and Washington. For now, Merz has aligned Germany with its Atlantic partners in betting that expanding Ukraine’s reach—rather than limiting it—offers the best chance to change Kremlin calculus and hasten meaningful negotiations.

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