The BLUF - October 6th

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• Lithuania Moves to Delete the Constitutional Ban That Keeps Out Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Bases

• More Than 6,000 Arrested, Most of Them Minors, as French School Protests Enter a Third Week

• 134 Million Names Are Off India's Draft Voter Rolls. The Opposition Wants the Commissioner Out

Lithuania Moves to Delete the Constitutional Ban That Keeps Out Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Bases

_{By: Atlas}

Lithuania's parliament voted Tuesday to begin removing the constitutional article that bars weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases from the country. The change would clear the legal path for a permanent U.S. base and, potentially, allied nuclear weapons.

The amendment deleting Article 137 passed 106-18 with six abstentions. It was the first of two votes required under Article 148 of the constitution: amendments outside its first and final chapters must pass the Seimas twice, at least three months apart, with at least 94 of the 141 members in favor each time. Speaker Juozas Olekas has said the final vote is set for Jan. 12, 2027. The amendment had already cleared two procedural stages, 89-11 on July 7 and 99-13 with five abstentions on Sept. 22.

The vote came a day after President Donald Trump said Washington would consider Vilnius' request for a permanent American base.

A Permanent Base On The Table In Washington

A correspondent for Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT asked Trump about Lithuania's invitation on Monday. "They are friends of mine, they are great people, so we will certainly look at it," he said.

Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said on Facebook on Tuesday that Lithuania would pay. "Our partners only need to make the political decision to permanently station troops, and Lithuania is ready to cover the costs involved," he wrote. He first proposed a permanent presence to Trump's envoy, John Coale, in Vilnius last month.

Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said he raised the idea with Elbridge Colby, the under secretary of defense for policy, at the Pentagon on Sept. 23, and that no decision had been made.

U.S. troops have rotated through Lithuania since 2019, mostly as an armored battalion of almost 1,000 soldiers. That presence lapsed in early June, when a rotation left without a replacement. Kaunas has said two battalions totaling about 1,000 troops will arrive in late October for nine months, one a heavy Abrams unit and the other an engineer unit.

The request lands in the middle of a six-month Pentagon review of the roughly 80,000 U.S. troops in Europe. The review is to give Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at least four options by Nov. 6 and conclude in December.

Why Vilnius Says It Needs The Change

"We are responding to Russia's aggression," Kaunas said before the vote, pointing to strategic weapons in Russia's Kaliningrad region and in Belarus, both on Lithuania's borders.

Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea wedged between Lithuania and Poland. Russia has permanently stationed nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles there since 2018. Their range of about 500 kilometers (310 miles) puts all of Lithuania within reach. Russia began moving tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus in 2023, and in May the two militaries rehearsed handing warheads to a Belarusian Iskander unit.

Laurynas Kasčiūnas, who leads the opposition conservative Homeland Union, framed the change as a matter of options. In the Sept. 22 debate, he said removing the ban would not mean Lithuania had decided to station nuclear weapons. He cited a hypothetical allied ship carrying nuclear weapons, or nuclear-capable aircraft, that might need to pass through Lithuanian territory for deterrence purposes. "With the current restriction, we cannot fully participate in NATO's nuclear deterrence plans," he told lawmakers Tuesday.

President Gitanas Nausėda said July 2 that leaders of nearly all parliamentary groups agreed Article 137 was outdated and should be removed altogether rather than amended. "It would be truly unfortunate if we became the weak link or a grey zone within NATO," he said. He has said there are no immediate plans to store nuclear weapons in Lithuania, which would remain a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Olekas said the same day that Lithuania does not plan to host nuclear weapons in peacetime.

Who Voted No

Most of the opposition came from the Nemunas Dawn party, whose members cast 14 of the 18 votes against and two of the abstentions. Three members of the mixed parliamentary group and one member of the Farmers, Greens and Christian Families Union faction also voted no.

Aidas Gedvilas of Nemunas Dawn questioned whether parliament should decide alone. "There are certainly alternatives to this constitutional provision. We could resolve this through a referendum," he said.

Spinter polled 1,013 people for the Homeland Union from March 18 to 28. Forty percent said they would support amending the constitution to allow allied nuclear weapons if Lithuania joined a nuclear deterrence initiative. Twenty-eight percent were opposed, 15% of them strongly. Nineteen percent were neutral and 13% had no opinion.

Moscow's Warning

On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "If the military infrastructure of what is, in effect, NATO's leading country is moving closer to our borders, then, of course, this cannot be perceived as anything other than a step towards escalating tensions."

The same applied to nuclear weapons in a neighboring state, Peskov said. He added that the two developments would "mark yet another significant escalation of tensions" and that Moscow would take all necessary measures to guarantee its security. In early September, he warned that Lithuania could become a Russian target if it allowed allies to deploy nuclear weapons on its soil.

A Wider Shift On NATO's Eastern Flank

Under NATO nuclear sharing, U.S. weapons in Europe remain in American custody while some allies supply aircraft able to deliver them. Poland's deputy defense minister, Paweł Zalewski, said Sept. 3 that allies were ready for the first time to bring Poland into that delivery program, while ruling out warheads on Polish soil. Finland lifted its legal ban on nuclear weapons on its territory this year.

In Lithuania, Germany is building the first combat brigade it has stationed permanently abroad. The 45th Panzer Brigade is expected to have about 2,000 personnel by year's end and to reach about 4,800 soldiers and 200 civilians by the end of 2027. Most will be based at Rūdninkai, about 35 kilometers from the Belarusian border.

Article 137 has been in Lithuania's constitution since voters approved the charter in a referendum on Oct. 25, 1992. Kaunas placed the responsibility for removing it on Moscow. "If Russia had not started the war in Ukraine," he said, "we probably would not be having the discussions we are having today."

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