The BLUF - September 2nd

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This is Atlas, and you’re reading the Bottom Line Up Front, where we cover the top geopolitical stories from around the world every Tuesday!

Today’s topics:

• India & Russia Enhance Ties As Tariff Threats From US Loom Ahead

• Possible Coup Attempt Thwarted in KRG, Highlighting Iraq's Increasingly Volatile Political Climate

• Maduro Threatens US with ‘Call To Arms’ If Attack Takes Place

India & Russia Enhance Ties As Tariff Threats From US Loom Ahead

_{By: Atlas}

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, China, holding a bilateral discussion that both leaders cast as an affirmation of longstanding ties at a moment of friction between New Delhi and Washington. In opening remarks, Modi called the partnership with Moscow “special and privileged,” while Putin addressed him as a “dear friend” and described Russia–India relations as “friendly” and “trusting.” Modi and Putin also appeared together in public settings throughout the day, including during the leaders’ arrival and photo sessions at the SCO gathering.

Public signals from Tianjin

The two leaders emphasized continuity and personal rapport. Russian state media and social posts highlighted a one-on-one conversation inside Putin’s armored Aurus limousine and images of Modi and Putin walking hand-in-hand en route to greet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Modi told Putin that India and Russia had “always walked shoulder to shoulder” even in difficult periods, while Putin reiterated that decades of “friendly, trusting” ties remain the foundation for future cooperation. Modi also indicated support for diplomatic efforts on the war in Ukraine, saying he welcomed steps aimed at ending the conflict and establishing “permanent peace.” Separate readouts and reports from Tianjin underscored the symbolism of the optics with Xi: the three leaders were seen in close conversation, and Xi used a summit address to criticize “Cold War mentalities” and “bullying,” without naming the United States.

Tariff pressure from Washington

The showcase of India–Russia engagement came after the United States imposed steeper duties on Indian goods. Days before the summit, the White House doubled tariffs on Indian imports to a total of 50%, tying the move to India’s continued purchases of discounted Russian crude. Reporting from Tianjin described the Modi–Putin meeting as taking place “when New Delhi’s relations with Washington are strained over the purchase of Russian oil.” Commentary around the summit also noted a perception in New Delhi that tariff hikes and rhetoric from Washington were pushing India closer to both Russia and China, with analysts citing U.S. “economic unilateralism” as a factor accelerating collaboration among the three. At the same time, U.S. statements and social posts framed the tariff dispute as part of a broader trade imbalance, even as the administration signaled no near-term deal with India.

Energy trade and economic ties

Energy remains central to the relationship. India and China are now the largest purchasers of Russian crude, and Indian officials have defended continued imports as necessary to meet the energy needs of a nation of 1.4 billion people. Data cited by Indian and international outlets indicate that Russia accounts for roughly 37% of India’s total crude imports after a shift away from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers. Beyond energy, bilateral trade has expanded sharply, with total turnover reaching a record $68.7 billion in India’s 2024–25 financial year—about $64 billion in imports from Russia and $5 billion in Indian exports—and with a stated goal of $100 billion by 2030. The leaders also signaled plans for continued high-level engagement; Russian officials said Putin intends to travel to India in December for the next annual summit.

Where the relationship goes from here

From Tianjin, the message was that New Delhi aims to maintain strategic autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington. Modi and Putin publicly underscored stability in the relationship—through language about “special” ties, visible camaraderie, and a pending leader-level visit—at the same moment the United States tied higher tariffs to India’s oil purchases from Russia. Modi additionally voiced support for constructive steps toward ending the Ukraine war, a point he has raised alongside appeals for stability and prosperity. Inside the SCO setting, Xi’s comments about “bullying” and “Cold War mentalities” provided broader context for how the trilateral optics were likely to be read in Washington. In practical terms, the immediate markers to watch are whether India adjusts its import mix or tariff stance, whether Moscow and New Delhi finalize new trade mechanisms by year’s end, and whether the planned Putin visit proceeds on schedule amid ongoing U.S. tariff threats.

Bottom line

Modi and Putin used their Tianjin interactions to reinforce an enduring bilateral alignment across energy and trade as the United States signals a tougher tariff posture toward India. The leaders paired messages of continuity—personal rapport, scheduled diplomacy, and language emphasizing trust—with statements about peace efforts in Ukraine and with broader SCO rhetoric critical of Western pressure. The net effect is that India and Russia are publicly consolidating ties while New Delhi weighs how to manage tariff headwinds from Washington without disrupting an energy supply mix that has grown more reliant on Russian oil.

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